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icon for Highest temperature in Miami on May 1?

Highest temperature in Miami on May 1?

icon for Highest temperature in Miami on May 1?

Highest temperature in Miami on May 1?

Ended: May 1

Jul 30

Jul 31

Ended: May 1

Jul 30

Jul 31

86-87°F 100.0%

77°F or below <1%

78-79°F <1%

80-81°F <1%

Polymarket

$128,399 Vol.

86-87°F 100.0%

77°F or below <1%

78-79°F <1%

80-81°F <1%

Polymarket

$128,399 Vol.

77°F or below

$2,111 Vol.

No

78-79°F

$695 Vol.

No

80-81°F

$2,706 Vol.

No

82-83°F

$4,243 Vol.

No

84-85°F

$29,916 Vol.

No

86-87°F

$36,363 Vol.

Yes

88-89°F

$15,252 Vol.

No

90-91°F

$10,519 Vol.

No

92-93°F

$9,166 Vol.

No

94-95°F

$12,472 Vol.

No

96°F or higher

$4,956 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service observations at Miami International Airport confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, peaked at 87.1°F around 2 PM EDT, with subsequent hours at 86°F, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for the 86-87°F bin as markets near resolution. This aligns with hourly METAR data from NOAA, the authoritative source for such measurements, amid south-southeast winds and partly cloudy skies that capped daytime heating below pre-event model forecasts of 89°F. Historical May 1 averages hover near 85°F, making this slightly above normal but short of records. Final daily climatological reports could prompt minor revisions if late-afternoon peaks emerge or quality control adjusts readings, though such changes are rare for established highs.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$128,399
End Date
May 1, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:07 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service observations at Miami International Airport confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, peaked at 87.1°F around 2 PM EDT, with subsequent hours at 86°F, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for the 86-87°F bin as markets near resolution. This aligns with hourly METAR data from NOAA, the authoritative source for such measurements, amid south-southeast winds and partly cloudy skies that capped daytime heating below pre-event model forecasts of 89°F. Historical May 1 averages hover near 85°F, making this slightly above normal but short of records. Final daily climatological reports could prompt minor revisions if late-afternoon peaks emerge or quality control adjusts readings, though such changes are rare for established highs.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$128,399
End Date
May 1, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:07 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Miami on May 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "86-87°F" at 100%, followed by "77°F or below" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Miami on May 1?" has generated $128.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Miami on May 1?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Miami on May 1?" is "86-87°F" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "77°F or below" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Miami on May 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.