Recent forecasts from models and agencies like ECMWF and national meteorological services point to a building high-pressure ridge over the Po Valley, supporting afternoon highs near 36–37°C in Milan on July 8, with the market splitting probability between these two outcomes. Key variables include the strength of subsidence warming, limited cloud cover allowing strong solar heating, and potential localized effects from urban heat island amplification or weak easterly flow. Minor shifts in steering patterns or earlier convection could cap the peak at 36°C or push it to 38°C, while historical July extremes and current model spread keep longer tails thin. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these contours ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on July 8?
Highest temperature in Milan on July 8?
37°C 42%
36°C 31%
38°C 16%
35°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 8, 2026
33°C or below
1%
34°C
2%
35°C
7%
36°C
31%
37°C
42%
38°C
16%
39°C
4%
40°C
1%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
37°C 42%
36°C 31%
38°C 16%
35°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 8, 2026
33°C or below
$180 Vol.
1%
34°C
$110 Vol.
2%
35°C
$92 Vol.
7%
36°C
$552 Vol.
31%
37°C
$319 Vol.
42%
38°C
$130 Vol.
16%
39°C
$81 Vol.
4%
40°C
$158 Vol.
1%
41°C
$133 Vol.
1%
42°C
$192 Vol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$444 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models and agencies like ECMWF and national meteorological services point to a building high-pressure ridge over the Po Valley, supporting afternoon highs near 36–37°C in Milan on July 8, with the market splitting probability between these two outcomes. Key variables include the strength of subsidence warming, limited cloud cover allowing strong solar heating, and potential localized effects from urban heat island amplification or weak easterly flow. Minor shifts in steering patterns or earlier convection could cap the peak at 36°C or push it to 38°C, while historical July extremes and current model spread keep longer tails thin. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these contours ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$2,391End Date
Jul 8, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models and agencies like ECMWF and national meteorological services point to a building high-pressure ridge over the Po Valley, supporting afternoon highs near 36–37°C in Milan on July 8, with the market splitting probability between these two outcomes. Key variables include the strength of subsidence warming, limited cloud cover allowing strong solar heating, and potential localized effects from urban heat island amplification or weak easterly flow. Minor shifts in steering patterns or earlier convection could cap the peak at 36°C or push it to 38°C, while historical July extremes and current model spread keep longer tails thin. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these contours ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,391End Date
Jul 8, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models and agencies like ECMWF and national meteorological services point to a building high-pressure ridge over the Po Valley, supporting afternoon highs near 36–37°C in Milan on July 8, with the market splitting probability between these two outcomes. Key variables include the strength of subsidence warming, limited cloud cover allowing strong solar heating, and potential localized effects from urban heat island amplification or weak easterly flow. Minor shifts in steering patterns or earlier convection could cap the peak at 36°C or push it to 38°C, while historical July extremes and current model spread keep longer tails thin. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these contours ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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