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Highest temperature in Moscow on April 5?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Moscow on April 5?

Apr 3

Apr 4

Apr 5

Apr 6

Apr 3

Apr 4

Apr 5

Apr 6

7°C or below 50%

8°C 20%

9°C 16%

11°C 12%

Polymarket
NEW

7°C or below 50%

8°C 20%

9°C 16%

11°C 12%

Polymarket
NEW

7°C or below

$115 Vol.

42%

8°C

$83 Vol.

20%

9°C

$20 Vol.

16%

10°C

$40 Vol.

10%

11°C

$114 Vol.

12%

12°C

$220 Vol.

10%

13°C

$106 Vol.

6%

14°C

$715 Vol.

<1%

15°C

$743 Vol.

1%

16°C

$579 Vol.

<1%

17°C or higher

$306 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecast guidance from Russian meteorological services, including recent updates from the Phobos Center, positions trader consensus around a maximum temperature of 7°C or below at 42% implied probability for Moscow on April 5, driven by an incoming cold air mass from the north following abnormally warm conditions earlier this week with highs near 18°C on April 2-3. Persistent cloud cover and light precipitation expected Saturday will further suppress daytime heating, aligning with ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF showing peaks of 5-7°C amid northerly winds. This reflects early April climatology, where historical highs average 6-9°C, though short-range uncertainty remains ahead of Sunday's final advisories and observational data.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,041
End Date
Apr 5, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecast guidance from Russian meteorological services, including recent updates from the Phobos Center, positions trader consensus around a maximum temperature of 7°C or below at 42% implied probability for Moscow on April 5, driven by an incoming cold air mass from the north following abnormally warm conditions earlier this week with highs near 18°C on April 2-3. Persistent cloud cover and light precipitation expected Saturday will further suppress daytime heating, aligning with ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF showing peaks of 5-7°C amid northerly winds. This reflects early April climatology, where historical highs average 6-9°C, though short-range uncertainty remains ahead of Sunday's final advisories and observational data.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,041
End Date
Apr 5, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Moscow on April 5?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "7°C or below" at 42%, followed by "8°C" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Moscow on April 5?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Moscow on April 5?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Moscow on April 5?" is "7°C or below" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "8°C" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Moscow on April 5?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.