Recent forecasts from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center and supporting numerical models point to a daily maximum of 28–29°C in Moscow on May 22, driven by warm southerly advection under a weakening high-pressure ridge that favors clear to partly cloudy skies and modest afternoon heating. This consensus underpins the market’s near-100% implied probability for 29°C, consistent with late-May climatology and limited potential for stronger instability or cold-air intrusion. Updated surface observations and model runs through the afternoon will provide final confirmation ahead of official resolution, though modest deviations remain possible if boundary-layer mixing or localized cloud cover develops differently than anticipated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on May 22?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 22?
29°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$40,443 Vol.
$40,443 Vol.
May 22, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$40,443 Vol.
$40,443 Vol.
May 22, 2026
23°C or below
$2,739 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,132 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,272 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,286 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,363 Vol.
No
28°C
$3,549 Vol.
No
29°C
$8,633 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$5,536 Vol.
No
31°C
$8,812 Vol.
No
32°C
$1,480 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$2,639 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center and supporting numerical models point to a daily maximum of 28–29°C in Moscow on May 22, driven by warm southerly advection under a weakening high-pressure ridge that favors clear to partly cloudy skies and modest afternoon heating. This consensus underpins the market’s near-100% implied probability for 29°C, consistent with late-May climatology and limited potential for stronger instability or cold-air intrusion. Updated surface observations and model runs through the afternoon will provide final confirmation ahead of official resolution, though modest deviations remain possible if boundary-layer mixing or localized cloud cover develops differently than anticipated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 20, 2026, 12:27 AM ET
Volume
$40,443End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center and supporting numerical models point to a daily maximum of 28–29°C in Moscow on May 22, driven by warm southerly advection under a weakening high-pressure ridge that favors clear to partly cloudy skies and modest afternoon heating. This consensus underpins the market’s near-100% implied probability for 29°C, consistent with late-May climatology and limited potential for stronger instability or cold-air intrusion. Updated surface observations and model runs through the afternoon will provide final confirmation ahead of official resolution, though modest deviations remain possible if boundary-layer mixing or localized cloud cover develops differently than anticipated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$40,443End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecasts from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center and supporting numerical models point to a daily maximum of 28–29°C in Moscow on May 22, driven by warm southerly advection under a weakening high-pressure ridge that favors clear to partly cloudy skies and modest afternoon heating. This consensus underpins the market’s near-100% implied probability for 29°C, consistent with late-May climatology and limited potential for stronger instability or cold-air intrusion. Updated surface observations and model runs through the afternoon will provide final confirmation ahead of official resolution, though modest deviations remain possible if boundary-layer mixing or localized cloud cover develops differently than anticipated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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