Short-term forecast uncertainty for maximum temperatures in coastal Qingdao is driving the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities around 30–34 °C. Ensemble guidance from regional models shows modest differences in the strength and position of the subtropical high-pressure ridge, which controls daytime heating and the strength of the moderating sea breeze. Minor variations in low-level wind direction or boundary-layer mixing over the next 48 hours can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C, while urban heat-island effects and cloud-cover timing add further spread. With resolution occurring in two days, traders are weighting the latest model runs and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration against historical June maxima near 29–31 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on June 20?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on June 20?
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$37,053 Vol.
$37,053 Vol.
Jun 20, 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$37,053 Vol.
$37,053 Vol.
Jun 20, 2026
26°C or below
$525 Vol.
No
27°C
$443 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,435 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,878 Vol.
No
30°C
$2,782 Vol.
No
31°C
$3,381 Vol.
No
32°C
$6,295 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$6,059 Vol.
No
34°C
$3,254 Vol.
No
35°C
$4,745 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$3,254 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty for maximum temperatures in coastal Qingdao is driving the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities around 30–34 °C. Ensemble guidance from regional models shows modest differences in the strength and position of the subtropical high-pressure ridge, which controls daytime heating and the strength of the moderating sea breeze. Minor variations in low-level wind direction or boundary-layer mixing over the next 48 hours can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C, while urban heat-island effects and cloud-cover timing add further spread. With resolution occurring in two days, traders are weighting the latest model runs and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration against historical June maxima near 29–31 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 18, 2026, 12:20 AM ET
Volume
$37,053End Date
Jun 20, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 12:20 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty for maximum temperatures in coastal Qingdao is driving the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities around 30–34 °C. Ensemble guidance from regional models shows modest differences in the strength and position of the subtropical high-pressure ridge, which controls daytime heating and the strength of the moderating sea breeze. Minor variations in low-level wind direction or boundary-layer mixing over the next 48 hours can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C, while urban heat-island effects and cloud-cover timing add further spread. With resolution occurring in two days, traders are weighting the latest model runs and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration against historical June maxima near 29–31 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$37,053End Date
Jun 20, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 12:20 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Short-term forecast uncertainty for maximum temperatures in coastal Qingdao is driving the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities around 30–34 °C. Ensemble guidance from regional models shows modest differences in the strength and position of the subtropical high-pressure ridge, which controls daytime heating and the strength of the moderating sea breeze. Minor variations in low-level wind direction or boundary-layer mixing over the next 48 hours can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C, while urban heat-island effects and cloud-cover timing add further spread. With resolution occurring in two days, traders are weighting the latest model runs and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration against historical June maxima near 29–31 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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