Trader consensus around 25–27°C for Shanghai’s June 25 maximum reflects the influence of the East Asian monsoon and ongoing meiyu (plum rain) conditions, which bring persistent cloud cover, frequent showers, and elevated humidity that typically cap daytime highs near or slightly below seasonal averages. Late-June climatology shows highs rising toward 28–30°C as solar heating strengthens, yet model runs highlight sensitivity to the precise timing and intensity of rain bands, which can suppress peaks by several degrees through reduced insolation or allow brief warming during lulls. With outcomes tightly clustered and no dominant signal in the latest ensemble guidance, market-implied probabilities capture genuine forecast spread from variables such as boundary-layer moisture and steering flow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on June 25?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 25?
25°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$136,470 Vol.
$136,470 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$136,470 Vol.
$136,470 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
21°C or below
$1,582 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,136 Vol.
No
23°C
$21,308 Vol.
No
24°C
$22,465 Vol.
No
25°C
$25,609 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$28,755 Vol.
No
27°C
$20,071 Vol.
No
28°C
$9,265 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,068 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,232 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$978 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 25–27°C for Shanghai’s June 25 maximum reflects the influence of the East Asian monsoon and ongoing meiyu (plum rain) conditions, which bring persistent cloud cover, frequent showers, and elevated humidity that typically cap daytime highs near or slightly below seasonal averages. Late-June climatology shows highs rising toward 28–30°C as solar heating strengthens, yet model runs highlight sensitivity to the precise timing and intensity of rain bands, which can suppress peaks by several degrees through reduced insolation or allow brief warming during lulls. With outcomes tightly clustered and no dominant signal in the latest ensemble guidance, market-implied probabilities capture genuine forecast spread from variables such as boundary-layer moisture and steering flow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$136,470End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 25–27°C for Shanghai’s June 25 maximum reflects the influence of the East Asian monsoon and ongoing meiyu (plum rain) conditions, which bring persistent cloud cover, frequent showers, and elevated humidity that typically cap daytime highs near or slightly below seasonal averages. Late-June climatology shows highs rising toward 28–30°C as solar heating strengthens, yet model runs highlight sensitivity to the precise timing and intensity of rain bands, which can suppress peaks by several degrees through reduced insolation or allow brief warming during lulls. With outcomes tightly clustered and no dominant signal in the latest ensemble guidance, market-implied probabilities capture genuine forecast spread from variables such as boundary-layer moisture and steering flow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$136,470End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus around 25–27°C for Shanghai’s June 25 maximum reflects the influence of the East Asian monsoon and ongoing meiyu (plum rain) conditions, which bring persistent cloud cover, frequent showers, and elevated humidity that typically cap daytime highs near or slightly below seasonal averages. Late-June climatology shows highs rising toward 28–30°C as solar heating strengthens, yet model runs highlight sensitivity to the precise timing and intensity of rain bands, which can suppress peaks by several degrees through reduced insolation or allow brief warming during lulls. With outcomes tightly clustered and no dominant signal in the latest ensemble guidance, market-implied probabilities capture genuine forecast spread from variables such as boundary-layer moisture and steering flow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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