Recent forecasts from global models and the China Meteorological Administration indicate Shanghai's July 6 high will likely fall in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 32–34°C. Lingering moisture from the East Asian summer monsoon and variable cloud cover or light rain remain the key uncertainties, as reduced insolation under overcast skies can suppress daytime maxima by 2–3°C compared to clearer conditions. Shanghai's urban heat island and typical July humidity amplify radiative heating on sunny days, while steering patterns from subtropical highs favor modest warming. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours, particularly on precipitation timing, will likely drive further shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on July 6?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 6?
36°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$238,431 Vol.
$238,431 Vol.
Jul 6, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$238,431 Vol.
$238,431 Vol.
Jul 6, 2026
27°C or below
$6,796 Vol.
No
28°C
$4,432 Vol.
No
29°C
$5,793 Vol.
No
30°C
$8,485 Vol.
No
31°C
$8,457 Vol.
No
32°C
$13,188 Vol.
No
33°C
$15,198 Vol.
No
34°C
$45,622 Vol.
No
35°C
$70,376 Vol.
No
36°C
$32,980 Vol.
Yes
37°C or higher
$27,105 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global models and the China Meteorological Administration indicate Shanghai's July 6 high will likely fall in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 32–34°C. Lingering moisture from the East Asian summer monsoon and variable cloud cover or light rain remain the key uncertainties, as reduced insolation under overcast skies can suppress daytime maxima by 2–3°C compared to clearer conditions. Shanghai's urban heat island and typical July humidity amplify radiative heating on sunny days, while steering patterns from subtropical highs favor modest warming. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours, particularly on precipitation timing, will likely drive further shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$238,431End Date
Jul 6, 2026Market Opened
Jul 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global models and the China Meteorological Administration indicate Shanghai's July 6 high will likely fall in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 32–34°C. Lingering moisture from the East Asian summer monsoon and variable cloud cover or light rain remain the key uncertainties, as reduced insolation under overcast skies can suppress daytime maxima by 2–3°C compared to clearer conditions. Shanghai's urban heat island and typical July humidity amplify radiative heating on sunny days, while steering patterns from subtropical highs favor modest warming. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours, particularly on precipitation timing, will likely drive further shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$238,431End Date
Jul 6, 2026Market Opened
Jul 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecasts from global models and the China Meteorological Administration indicate Shanghai's July 6 high will likely fall in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 32–34°C. Lingering moisture from the East Asian summer monsoon and variable cloud cover or light rain remain the key uncertainties, as reduced insolation under overcast skies can suppress daytime maxima by 2–3°C compared to clearer conditions. Shanghai's urban heat island and typical July humidity amplify radiative heating on sunny days, while steering patterns from subtropical highs favor modest warming. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours, particularly on precipitation timing, will likely drive further shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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