Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 23°C on May 9, 2026, backed by verified hourly observations from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station (ZSPD)—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—which peaked at 23°C midday under partly cloudy skies, southeasterly winds of 7-10 km/h, and near-60% humidity that suppressed further warming despite early solar heating. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts anticipating subdued highs from lingering upstream cloud cover and typical Yangtze Delta sea breeze moderation, following a warmer 27°C on May 5. With evening temperatures dropping to 20°C amid the diurnal cycle, only an improbable post-finalization data revision could challenge this positioning before Wunderground archives the official daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 9?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 9?
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$194,555 Vol.
$194,555 Vol.
May 9, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$194,555 Vol.
$194,555 Vol.
May 9, 2026
18°C or below
$6,379 Vol.
No
19°C
$8,527 Vol.
No
20°C
$16,132 Vol.
No
21°C
$17,098 Vol.
No
22°C
$28,034 Vol.
No
23°C
$26,791 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$21,070 Vol.
No
25°C
$31,960 Vol.
No
26°C
$14,146 Vol.
No
27°C
$11,640 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$12,779 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 23°C on May 9, 2026, backed by verified hourly observations from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station (ZSPD)—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—which peaked at 23°C midday under partly cloudy skies, southeasterly winds of 7-10 km/h, and near-60% humidity that suppressed further warming despite early solar heating. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts anticipating subdued highs from lingering upstream cloud cover and typical Yangtze Delta sea breeze moderation, following a warmer 27°C on May 5. With evening temperatures dropping to 20°C amid the diurnal cycle, only an improbable post-finalization data revision could challenge this positioning before Wunderground archives the official daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 7, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$194,555End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 23°C on May 9, 2026, backed by verified hourly observations from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station (ZSPD)—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—which peaked at 23°C midday under partly cloudy skies, southeasterly winds of 7-10 km/h, and near-60% humidity that suppressed further warming despite early solar heating. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts anticipating subdued highs from lingering upstream cloud cover and typical Yangtze Delta sea breeze moderation, following a warmer 27°C on May 5. With evening temperatures dropping to 20°C amid the diurnal cycle, only an improbable post-finalization data revision could challenge this positioning before Wunderground archives the official daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$194,555End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 23°C on May 9, 2026, backed by verified hourly observations from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station (ZSPD)—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—which peaked at 23°C midday under partly cloudy skies, southeasterly winds of 7-10 km/h, and near-60% humidity that suppressed further warming despite early solar heating. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts anticipating subdued highs from lingering upstream cloud cover and typical Yangtze Delta sea breeze moderation, following a warmer 27°C on May 5. With evening temperatures dropping to 20°C amid the diurnal cycle, only an improbable post-finalization data revision could challenge this positioning before Wunderground archives the official daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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