Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station, where midday temperatures on April 30 peaked at around 27°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds, comfortably surpassing the 25°C threshold. This aligns with late-April climatology in Shenzhen's subtropical climate, featuring average highs of 26°C and low day-to-day variability driven by stable high-pressure systems and warming sea surface temperatures. Short-term forecasts from official models had projected 25–27°C peaks, now validated by real-time measurements. Realistic challenges would require an unprecedented data revision or unforecast cold front, both improbable given current stability and historical patterns. Final resolution awaits the station's official daily maximum report.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 30?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 30?
25°C or higher 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$48,193 Vol.
$48,193 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
Yes
25°C or higher 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$48,193 Vol.
$48,193 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
15°C or below
$413 Vol.
No
16°C
$532 Vol.
No
17°C
$412 Vol.
No
18°C
$688 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,365 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,067 Vol.
No
21°C
$750 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,858 Vol.
No
23°C
$2,639 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,867 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$34,601 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station, where midday temperatures on April 30 peaked at around 27°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds, comfortably surpassing the 25°C threshold. This aligns with late-April climatology in Shenzhen's subtropical climate, featuring average highs of 26°C and low day-to-day variability driven by stable high-pressure systems and warming sea surface temperatures. Short-term forecasts from official models had projected 25–27°C peaks, now validated by real-time measurements. Realistic challenges would require an unprecedented data revision or unforecast cold front, both improbable given current stability and historical patterns. Final resolution awaits the station's official daily maximum report.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 3:02 PM ET
Volume
$48,193End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 3:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station, where midday temperatures on April 30 peaked at around 27°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds, comfortably surpassing the 25°C threshold. This aligns with late-April climatology in Shenzhen's subtropical climate, featuring average highs of 26°C and low day-to-day variability driven by stable high-pressure systems and warming sea surface temperatures. Short-term forecasts from official models had projected 25–27°C peaks, now validated by real-time measurements. Realistic challenges would require an unprecedented data revision or unforecast cold front, both improbable given current stability and historical patterns. Final resolution awaits the station's official daily maximum report.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$48,193End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 3:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station, where midday temperatures on April 30 peaked at around 27°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds, comfortably surpassing the 25°C threshold. This aligns with late-April climatology in Shenzhen's subtropical climate, featuring average highs of 26°C and low day-to-day variability driven by stable high-pressure systems and warming sea surface temperatures. Short-term forecasts from official models had projected 25–27°C peaks, now validated by real-time measurements. Realistic challenges would require an unprecedented data revision or unforecast cold front, both improbable given current stability and historical patterns. Final resolution awaits the station's official daily maximum report.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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