Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 29°C high temperature in Shenzhen on May 2, backed by real-time observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport and short-range forecasts from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and China Meteorological Administration. Cloudy skies with intermittent showers and southeast sea breezes at force 2-3 limited solar insolation and convective heating, capping peaks consistent with yesterday's 27°C high amid lingering post-rain humidity above 80%. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles align on this outcome, reflecting early May climatology where average highs hover near 29°C. Realistic challenges—such as unexpected afternoon clearing boosting urban heat island effects to 30°C—grow improbable as the day ends, with final airport data set to confirm resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on May 2?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 2?
29°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$63,301 Vol.
$63,301 Vol.
May 2, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$63,301 Vol.
$63,301 Vol.
May 2, 2026
22°C or below
$1,775 Vol.
No
23°C
$6,671 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,278 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,144 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,606 Vol.
No
27°C
$4,757 Vol.
No
28°C
$17,729 Vol.
No
29°C
$8,085 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$6,992 Vol.
No
31°C
$5,799 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$5,466 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 29°C high temperature in Shenzhen on May 2, backed by real-time observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport and short-range forecasts from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and China Meteorological Administration. Cloudy skies with intermittent showers and southeast sea breezes at force 2-3 limited solar insolation and convective heating, capping peaks consistent with yesterday's 27°C high amid lingering post-rain humidity above 80%. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles align on this outcome, reflecting early May climatology where average highs hover near 29°C. Realistic challenges—such as unexpected afternoon clearing boosting urban heat island effects to 30°C—grow improbable as the day ends, with final airport data set to confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:20 AM ET
Volume
$63,301End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:20 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 29°C high temperature in Shenzhen on May 2, backed by real-time observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport and short-range forecasts from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and China Meteorological Administration. Cloudy skies with intermittent showers and southeast sea breezes at force 2-3 limited solar insolation and convective heating, capping peaks consistent with yesterday's 27°C high amid lingering post-rain humidity above 80%. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles align on this outcome, reflecting early May climatology where average highs hover near 29°C. Realistic challenges—such as unexpected afternoon clearing boosting urban heat island effects to 30°C—grow improbable as the day ends, with final airport data set to confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$63,301End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:20 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 29°C high temperature in Shenzhen on May 2, backed by real-time observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport and short-range forecasts from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and China Meteorological Administration. Cloudy skies with intermittent showers and southeast sea breezes at force 2-3 limited solar insolation and convective heating, capping peaks consistent with yesterday's 27°C high amid lingering post-rain humidity above 80%. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles align on this outcome, reflecting early May climatology where average highs hover near 29°C. Realistic challenges—such as unexpected afternoon clearing boosting urban heat island effects to 30°C—grow improbable as the day ends, with final airport data set to confirm resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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