Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 8, 2026, driven by official NOAA observations at Ben Gurion International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirming a midday peak of 77°F (25°C) under clear skies and strengthening northerly sea breezes that moderated coastal warmth. Israel Meteorological Service data aligns, showing current readings stabilizing at 24–25°C with no further intensification expected as high-pressure ridges dominate, consistent with early May climatology averaging 25–26°C highs. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-afternoon heat burst exceeding model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, though diurnal cooling and low humidity (around 20–50%) make this improbable; final daily summaries from IMS expected by evening will solidify resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 8?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 8?
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$69,295 Vol.
$69,295 Vol.
May 8, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$69,295 Vol.
$69,295 Vol.
May 8, 2026
20°C or below
$2,752 Vol.
No
21°C
$2,129 Vol.
No
22°C
$5,837 Vol.
No
23°C
$6,399 Vol.
No
24°C
$8,090 Vol.
No
25°C
$9,249 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$8,930 Vol.
No
27°C
$6,191 Vol.
No
28°C
$10,576 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,447 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$4,695 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 8, 2026, driven by official NOAA observations at Ben Gurion International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirming a midday peak of 77°F (25°C) under clear skies and strengthening northerly sea breezes that moderated coastal warmth. Israel Meteorological Service data aligns, showing current readings stabilizing at 24–25°C with no further intensification expected as high-pressure ridges dominate, consistent with early May climatology averaging 25–26°C highs. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-afternoon heat burst exceeding model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, though diurnal cooling and low humidity (around 20–50%) make this improbable; final daily summaries from IMS expected by evening will solidify resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 6, 2026, 12:36 AM ET
Volume
$69,295End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 6, 2026, 12:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 8, 2026, driven by official NOAA observations at Ben Gurion International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirming a midday peak of 77°F (25°C) under clear skies and strengthening northerly sea breezes that moderated coastal warmth. Israel Meteorological Service data aligns, showing current readings stabilizing at 24–25°C with no further intensification expected as high-pressure ridges dominate, consistent with early May climatology averaging 25–26°C highs. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-afternoon heat burst exceeding model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, though diurnal cooling and low humidity (around 20–50%) make this improbable; final daily summaries from IMS expected by evening will solidify resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$69,295End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 6, 2026, 12:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 8, 2026, driven by official NOAA observations at Ben Gurion International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirming a midday peak of 77°F (25°C) under clear skies and strengthening northerly sea breezes that moderated coastal warmth. Israel Meteorological Service data aligns, showing current readings stabilizing at 24–25°C with no further intensification expected as high-pressure ridges dominate, consistent with early May climatology averaging 25–26°C highs. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-afternoon heat burst exceeding model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, though diurnal cooling and low humidity (around 20–50%) make this improbable; final daily summaries from IMS expected by evening will solidify resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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