MetService's latest forecast update on April 3 afternoon projects a maximum temperature of 19°C at Wellington on April 4 under cloudy periods and northerly winds, aligning with the 20.5% market-implied probability for 19°C while recent observations—such as yesterday's 19.7°C high at Kelburn—support trader sentiment favoring a 38% chance of 20°C amid potential for northerly-driven warming if cloud cover thins. Early autumn climatology typically sees highs around 16–17°C, but current mild northerly flow has elevated recent peaks above seasonal norms; inherent uncertainty in short-range models, including boundary layer mixing and solar insolation, positions 21°C at 15.1%. Official measurements from Wellington International Airport will resolve the market, with hourly updates expected through the day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on April 4?
Highest temperature in Wellington on April 4?
20°C 37%
19°C 21%
21°C 15.2%
18°C 8%
$35,055 Vol.
$35,055 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
4%
18°C
8%
19°C
21%
20°C
37%
21°C
15%
22°C or higher
4%
20°C 37%
19°C 21%
21°C 15.2%
18°C 8%
$35,055 Vol.
$35,055 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
12°C or below
$5,075 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$6,272 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$5,937 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$3,341 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,233 Vol.
1%
17°C
$2,293 Vol.
4%
18°C
$2,192 Vol.
8%
19°C
$3,163 Vol.
21%
20°C
$1,336 Vol.
37%
21°C
$2,403 Vol.
15%
22°C or higher
$1,810 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest forecast update on April 3 afternoon projects a maximum temperature of 19°C at Wellington on April 4 under cloudy periods and northerly winds, aligning with the 20.5% market-implied probability for 19°C while recent observations—such as yesterday's 19.7°C high at Kelburn—support trader sentiment favoring a 38% chance of 20°C amid potential for northerly-driven warming if cloud cover thins. Early autumn climatology typically sees highs around 16–17°C, but current mild northerly flow has elevated recent peaks above seasonal norms; inherent uncertainty in short-range models, including boundary layer mixing and solar insolation, positions 21°C at 15.1%. Official measurements from Wellington International Airport will resolve the market, with hourly updates expected through the day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$35,055End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest forecast update on April 3 afternoon projects a maximum temperature of 19°C at Wellington on April 4 under cloudy periods and northerly winds, aligning with the 20.5% market-implied probability for 19°C while recent observations—such as yesterday's 19.7°C high at Kelburn—support trader sentiment favoring a 38% chance of 20°C amid potential for northerly-driven warming if cloud cover thins. Early autumn climatology typically sees highs around 16–17°C, but current mild northerly flow has elevated recent peaks above seasonal norms; inherent uncertainty in short-range models, including boundary layer mixing and solar insolation, positions 21°C at 15.1%. Official measurements from Wellington International Airport will resolve the market, with hourly updates expected through the day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$35,055End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...MetService's latest forecast update on April 3 afternoon projects a maximum temperature of 19°C at Wellington on April 4 under cloudy periods and northerly winds, aligning with the 20.5% market-implied probability for 19°C while recent observations—such as yesterday's 19.7°C high at Kelburn—support trader sentiment favoring a 38% chance of 20°C amid potential for northerly-driven warming if cloud cover thins. Early autumn climatology typically sees highs around 16–17°C, but current mild northerly flow has elevated recent peaks above seasonal norms; inherent uncertainty in short-range models, including boundary layer mixing and solar insolation, positions 21°C at 15.1%. Official measurements from Wellington International Airport will resolve the market, with hourly updates expected through the day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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