Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 32°C high temperature in Wuhan on May 6, driven by official METAR observations at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, the market's resolution source, which recorded a peak of 32°C around 15:00 local time amid mostly cloudy conditions. Subsequent readings stabilized at 31°C into the evening, aligning with China Meteorological Administration and global models like GFS and ECMWF projecting no further intensification under moderating southerly winds and increasing cloud cover. This warm spell exceeds early May climatological averages of 25–28°C but fits recent trends from May 4 (28°C) and May 5 (30°C). Realistic challenges include a rare late-day heat burst exceeding 33°C before midnight, though current cooling trajectories make this improbable; official daily records release expected shortly after 00:00 CST May 7.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wuhan on May 6?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 6?
32°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$93,480 Vol.
$93,480 Vol.
May 6, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$93,480 Vol.
$93,480 Vol.
May 6, 2026
27°C or below
$906 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,866 Vol.
No
29°C
$12,456 Vol.
No
30°C
$11,472 Vol.
No
31°C
$27,281 Vol.
No
32°C
$9,947 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$8,191 Vol.
No
34°C
$6,596 Vol.
No
35°C
$5,923 Vol.
No
36°C
$3,359 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$5,483 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 32°C high temperature in Wuhan on May 6, driven by official METAR observations at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, the market's resolution source, which recorded a peak of 32°C around 15:00 local time amid mostly cloudy conditions. Subsequent readings stabilized at 31°C into the evening, aligning with China Meteorological Administration and global models like GFS and ECMWF projecting no further intensification under moderating southerly winds and increasing cloud cover. This warm spell exceeds early May climatological averages of 25–28°C but fits recent trends from May 4 (28°C) and May 5 (30°C). Realistic challenges include a rare late-day heat burst exceeding 33°C before midnight, though current cooling trajectories make this improbable; official daily records release expected shortly after 00:00 CST May 7.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 12:44 PM ET
Volume
$93,480End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 32°C high temperature in Wuhan on May 6, driven by official METAR observations at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, the market's resolution source, which recorded a peak of 32°C around 15:00 local time amid mostly cloudy conditions. Subsequent readings stabilized at 31°C into the evening, aligning with China Meteorological Administration and global models like GFS and ECMWF projecting no further intensification under moderating southerly winds and increasing cloud cover. This warm spell exceeds early May climatological averages of 25–28°C but fits recent trends from May 4 (28°C) and May 5 (30°C). Realistic challenges include a rare late-day heat burst exceeding 33°C before midnight, though current cooling trajectories make this improbable; official daily records release expected shortly after 00:00 CST May 7.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$93,480End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 32°C high temperature in Wuhan on May 6, driven by official METAR observations at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, the market's resolution source, which recorded a peak of 32°C around 15:00 local time amid mostly cloudy conditions. Subsequent readings stabilized at 31°C into the evening, aligning with China Meteorological Administration and global models like GFS and ECMWF projecting no further intensification under moderating southerly winds and increasing cloud cover. This warm spell exceeds early May climatological averages of 25–28°C but fits recent trends from May 4 (28°C) and May 5 (30°C). Realistic challenges include a rare late-day heat burst exceeding 33°C before midnight, though current cooling trajectories make this improbable; official daily records release expected shortly after 00:00 CST May 7.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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