The market's overwhelming 100% implied probability for a 27°C high in Zhengzhou on September 10 reflects converging outputs from regional numerical weather prediction models and near-real-time surface observations from official Chinese meteorological networks, which have consistently pointed to this peak under stable high-pressure conditions and light winds. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical daily maxima around 26–28°C, providing context for why traders view deviations as improbable at this stage. Minor uncertainty remains from potential post-analysis adjustments to station data or microscale variations across urban versus suburban sites, though such revisions rarely exceed 1°C for well-monitored locations. Updated hourly reports or final daily summaries from the China Meteorological Administration could confirm resolution criteria in the coming hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Zhengzhou on September 10?
Highest temperature in Zhengzhou on September 10?
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$4,704 Vol.
$4,704 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$4,704 Vol.
$4,704 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
22°C or below
$259 Vol.
No
23°C
$239 Vol.
No
24°C
$415 Vol.
No
25°C
$437 Vol.
No
26°C
$207 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,077 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$958 Vol.
No
29°C
$983 Vol.
No
30°C
$20 Vol.
No
31°C
$55 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$55 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's overwhelming 100% implied probability for a 27°C high in Zhengzhou on September 10 reflects converging outputs from regional numerical weather prediction models and near-real-time surface observations from official Chinese meteorological networks, which have consistently pointed to this peak under stable high-pressure conditions and light winds. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical daily maxima around 26–28°C, providing context for why traders view deviations as improbable at this stage. Minor uncertainty remains from potential post-analysis adjustments to station data or microscale variations across urban versus suburban sites, though such revisions rarely exceed 1°C for well-monitored locations. Updated hourly reports or final daily summaries from the China Meteorological Administration could confirm resolution criteria in the coming hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$4,704End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's overwhelming 100% implied probability for a 27°C high in Zhengzhou on September 10 reflects converging outputs from regional numerical weather prediction models and near-real-time surface observations from official Chinese meteorological networks, which have consistently pointed to this peak under stable high-pressure conditions and light winds. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical daily maxima around 26–28°C, providing context for why traders view deviations as improbable at this stage. Minor uncertainty remains from potential post-analysis adjustments to station data or microscale variations across urban versus suburban sites, though such revisions rarely exceed 1°C for well-monitored locations. Updated hourly reports or final daily summaries from the China Meteorological Administration could confirm resolution criteria in the coming hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,704End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The market's overwhelming 100% implied probability for a 27°C high in Zhengzhou on September 10 reflects converging outputs from regional numerical weather prediction models and near-real-time surface observations from official Chinese meteorological networks, which have consistently pointed to this peak under stable high-pressure conditions and light winds. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical daily maxima around 26–28°C, providing context for why traders view deviations as improbable at this stage. Minor uncertainty remains from potential post-analysis adjustments to station data or microscale variations across urban versus suburban sites, though such revisions rarely exceed 1°C for well-monitored locations. Updated hourly reports or final daily summaries from the China Meteorological Administration could confirm resolution criteria in the coming hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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