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Geopolitics·Ship

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)

Market icon
Geopolitics·Ship

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)

Mar 23

Mar 29

Mar 23

Mar 29

20-24 34%

25-29 16%

30-34 15%

15-19 14%

Polymarket
NEW

$14,355 Vol.

20-24 34%

25-29 16%

30-34 15%

15-19 14%

Polymarket
NEW

$14,355 Vol.

<10

$2,385 Vol.

2%

10-14

$1,004 Vol.

4%

15-19

$1,237 Vol.

14%

20-24

$2,758 Vol.

34%

25-29

$1,146 Vol.

16%

30-34

$1,080 Vol.

15%

35-39

$1,229 Vol.

13%

40-44

$1,147 Vol.

6%

45+

$2,369 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 20-24 oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29 (33.5%), mirroring the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) recent weekly data: 21 loaded vessels the week ending March 21, 18 the prior week, and a dip to 16 ending March 22 amid routine port delays and mild weather in the Persian Gulf. Lower bins like 15-19 (14%) gain traction from that recent downtick, while 25-29 (16%) reflects hopes for a rebound to the monthly average of around 20 amid stable shipping flows. No Iranian ship seizures, Strait closure threats, or Houthi spillover disruptions have emerged in the past week, with U.S. naval patrols ensuring security; early AIS tracker data through March 25 showing 4-5 daily tankers could solidify the leader if consistent, but sudden Tehran escalations or fog could shift support lower.

Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 20-24 oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29 (33.5%), mirroring the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) recent weekly data: 21 loaded vessels the week ending March 21, 18 the prior week, and a dip to 16 ending March 22 amid routine port delays and mild weather in the Persian Gulf. Lower bins like 15-19 (14%) gain traction from that recent downtick, while 25-29 (16%) reflects hopes for a rebound to the monthly average of around 20 amid stable shipping flows. No Iranian ship seizures, Strait closure threats, or Houthi spillover disruptions have emerged in the past week, with U.S. naval patrols ensuring security; early AIS tracker data through March 25 showing 4-5 daily tankers could solidify the leader if consistent, but sudden Tehran escalations or fog could shift support lower.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 20-24 oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29 (33.5%), mirroring the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) recent weekly data: 21 loaded vessels the week ending March 21, 18 the prior week, and a dip to 16 ending March 22 amid routine port delays and mild weather in the Persian Gulf. Lower bins like 15-19 (14%) gain traction from that recent downtick, while 25-29 (16%) reflects hopes for a rebound to the monthly average of around 20 amid stable shipping flows. No Iranian ship seizures, Strait closure threats, or Houthi spillover disruptions have emerged in the past week, with U.S. naval patrols ensuring security; early AIS tracker data through March 25 showing 4-5 daily tankers could solidify the leader if consistent, but sudden Tehran escalations or fog could shift support lower.

Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 20-24 oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29 (33.5%), mirroring the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) recent weekly data: 21 loaded vessels the week ending March 21, 18 the prior week, and a dip to 16 ending March 22 amid routine port delays and mild weather in the Persian Gulf. Lower bins like 15-19 (14%) gain traction from that recent downtick, while 25-29 (16%) reflects hopes for a rebound to the monthly average of around 20 amid stable shipping flows. No Iranian ship seizures, Strait closure threats, or Houthi spillover disruptions have emerged in the past week, with U.S. naval patrols ensuring security; early AIS tracker data through March 25 showing 4-5 daily tankers could solidify the leader if consistent, but sudden Tehran escalations or fog could shift support lower.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "20-24" at 34%, followed by "25-29" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)" has generated $14.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)" is "20-24" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "25-29" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.