Recent US and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's declared enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving much of its stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium inaccessible under rubble. Official reporting indicates no resumption of enrichment activity through mid-2026, consistent with a June memorandum of understanding in which Iran reaffirmed it would not pursue nuclear weapons. The IAEA has faced restricted inspector access to key sites since the strikes, prompting a September 2026 Board of Governors vote to refer Tehran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance—the first such action in two decades—while noting construction at an underground site near Natanz. These developments have produced a damaged and dormant program, supporting trader consensus on low near-term breakout risk before 2027.