Recent IAEA referral of Iran's nuclear file to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance, combined with confirmed construction at the fortified Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz, underscores ongoing diplomatic pressure and verification gaps following 2025-2026 military strikes. Those operations damaged key enrichment facilities and left Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium largely inaccessible under rubble, with no active enrichment reported since. Traders assign 95% probability to no nuclear weapon before 2027 because these setbacks have placed the program in a dormant state under heightened international scrutiny. Late shifts remain possible if Tehran recovers and advances the stockpile at undeclared underground locations or accelerates breakout despite sanctions risks.