Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted multiple attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz since July 6, 2026, including strikes on oil tankers and other ships attempting routes outside Iranian-approved paths. These incidents follow a June memorandum of understanding intended to ease a prior blockade and restore safe passage after earlier phases of the 2026 Iran conflict. Iran has sought to enforce tolls and protocols via its Persian Gulf Strait Authority while warning vessels against alternatives protected by U.S. forces. The United States has responded with renewed strikes on Iranian targets, and reports indicate at least nine vessels affected in the recent wave, with additional threats raised regarding the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Ongoing naval activity, disputed claims of explosions or seizures, and escalation risks tied to enforcement of transit rules continue to shape assessments of further successful Iranian operations against shipping.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping by...?
Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
NEW
Jul 20, 2026
July 20
54%
July 22
53%
July 24
54%
July 31
73%
$56 Vol.
July 20
$56 Vol.
54%
July 22
$0 Vol.
53%
July 24
$0 Vol.
54%
July 31
$0 Vol.
73%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted multiple attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz since July 6, 2026, including strikes on oil tankers and other ships attempting routes outside Iranian-approved paths. These incidents follow a June memorandum of understanding intended to ease a prior blockade and restore safe passage after earlier phases of the 2026 Iran conflict. Iran has sought to enforce tolls and protocols via its Persian Gulf Strait Authority while warning vessels against alternatives protected by U.S. forces. The United States has responded with renewed strikes on Iranian targets, and reports indicate at least nine vessels affected in the recent wave, with additional threats raised regarding the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Ongoing naval activity, disputed claims of explosions or seizures, and escalation risks tied to enforcement of transit rules continue to shape assessments of further successful Iranian operations against shipping.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Jul 18, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$56End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 18, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted multiple attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz since July 6, 2026, including strikes on oil tankers and other ships attempting routes outside Iranian-approved paths. These incidents follow a June memorandum of understanding intended to ease a prior blockade and restore safe passage after earlier phases of the 2026 Iran conflict. Iran has sought to enforce tolls and protocols via its Persian Gulf Strait Authority while warning vessels against alternatives protected by U.S. forces. The United States has responded with renewed strikes on Iranian targets, and reports indicate at least nine vessels affected in the recent wave, with additional threats raised regarding the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Ongoing naval activity, disputed claims of explosions or seizures, and escalation risks tied to enforcement of transit rules continue to shape assessments of further successful Iranian operations against shipping.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$56End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 18, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted multiple attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz since July 6, 2026, including strikes on oil tankers and other ships attempting routes outside Iranian-approved paths. These incidents follow a June memorandum of understanding intended to ease a prior blockade and restore safe passage after earlier phases of the 2026 Iran conflict. Iran has sought to enforce tolls and protocols via its Persian Gulf Strait Authority while warning vessels against alternatives protected by U.S. forces. The United States has responded with renewed strikes on Iranian targets, and reports indicate at least nine vessels affected in the recent wave, with additional threats raised regarding the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Ongoing naval activity, disputed claims of explosions or seizures, and escalation risks tied to enforcement of transit rules continue to shape assessments of further successful Iranian operations against shipping.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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