Japan’s preliminary Q1 2026 GDP expanded 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, beating the 0.4% consensus and accelerating from the prior period’s revised 0.2% gain, with private consumption rising 0.3% and net exports contributing positively amid stronger auto and tech shipments. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 0.6–0.8% band because these components, alongside a rebound in public investment, align with the higher end of analyst estimates and reflect easing inflation supporting real wages. Traders price in limited downside from softer business capex or external risks such as Middle East tensions. The June 7 final revision remains the key near-term catalyst that could still shift the outcome within the current tight probability distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.6–0.8% 100.0%
≤-0.4% <1%
-0.3– -0.1% <1%
0.0–0.2% <1%
$16,979 Vol.
$16,979 Vol.
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
No
-0.3– -0.1%
No
0.0–0.2%
No
0.3–0.5%
No
0.6–0.8%
Yes
0.9–1.1%
No
1.2%+
No
0.6–0.8% 100.0%
≤-0.4% <1%
-0.3– -0.1% <1%
0.0–0.2% <1%
$16,979 Vol.
$16,979 Vol.
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
$1,380 Vol.
No
-0.3– -0.1%
$2,742 Vol.
No
0.0–0.2%
$1,600 Vol.
No
0.3–0.5%
$3,567 Vol.
No
0.6–0.8%
$1,827 Vol.
Yes
0.9–1.1%
$2,065 Vol.
No
1.2%+
$3,798 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s preliminary Q1 2026 GDP expanded 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, beating the 0.4% consensus and accelerating from the prior period’s revised 0.2% gain, with private consumption rising 0.3% and net exports contributing positively amid stronger auto and tech shipments. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 0.6–0.8% band because these components, alongside a rebound in public investment, align with the higher end of analyst estimates and reflect easing inflation supporting real wages. Traders price in limited downside from softer business capex or external risks such as Middle East tensions. The June 7 final revision remains the key near-term catalyst that could still shift the outcome within the current tight probability distribution.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Market Opened: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$16,979End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s preliminary Q1 2026 GDP expanded 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, beating the 0.4% consensus and accelerating from the prior period’s revised 0.2% gain, with private consumption rising 0.3% and net exports contributing positively amid stronger auto and tech shipments. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 0.6–0.8% band because these components, alongside a rebound in public investment, align with the higher end of analyst estimates and reflect easing inflation supporting real wages. Traders price in limited downside from softer business capex or external risks such as Middle East tensions. The June 7 final revision remains the key near-term catalyst that could still shift the outcome within the current tight probability distribution.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$16,979End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Japan’s preliminary Q1 2026 GDP expanded 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, beating the 0.4% consensus and accelerating from the prior period’s revised 0.2% gain, with private consumption rising 0.3% and net exports contributing positively amid stronger auto and tech shipments. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 0.6–0.8% band because these components, alongside a rebound in public investment, align with the higher end of analyst estimates and reflect easing inflation supporting real wages. Traders price in limited downside from softer business capex or external risks such as Middle East tensions. The June 7 final revision remains the key near-term catalyst that could still shift the outcome within the current tight probability distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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