Current forecast models from sources like GFS and European agencies point to an overnight minimum in Amsterdam on September 23 of roughly 12–14 °C, shaped by a broad high-pressure ridge maintaining light southerly to westerly winds and variable cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. September 2026 has run about 1.7 °C above the long-term average so far, with recent nights holding in the low teens, while the 30-year climatological low for the date sits near 10 °C. Possible showers and rising humidity late on the 23rd introduce modest uncertainty in how far temperatures can drop, keeping market-implied odds for extremes (≤7 °C or ≥17 °C) nearly balanced as traders weigh model consensus against the narrow historical spread of observed minima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 23?
7°C or below 100%
17°C or higher 96%
11°C 40%
12°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
7°C or below
100%
8°C
39%
9°C
39%
10°C
39%
11°C
40%
12°C
40%
13°C
40%
14°C
21%
15°C
39%
16°C
39%
17°C or higher
96%
7°C or below 100%
17°C or higher 96%
11°C 40%
12°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
8°C
$0 Vol.
39%
9°C
$0 Vol.
39%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
40%
12°C
$0 Vol.
40%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$0 Vol.
21%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like GFS and European agencies point to an overnight minimum in Amsterdam on September 23 of roughly 12–14 °C, shaped by a broad high-pressure ridge maintaining light southerly to westerly winds and variable cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. September 2026 has run about 1.7 °C above the long-term average so far, with recent nights holding in the low teens, while the 30-year climatological low for the date sits near 10 °C. Possible showers and rising humidity late on the 23rd introduce modest uncertainty in how far temperatures can drop, keeping market-implied odds for extremes (≤7 °C or ≥17 °C) nearly balanced as traders weigh model consensus against the narrow historical spread of observed minima.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like GFS and European agencies point to an overnight minimum in Amsterdam on September 23 of roughly 12–14 °C, shaped by a broad high-pressure ridge maintaining light southerly to westerly winds and variable cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. September 2026 has run about 1.7 °C above the long-term average so far, with recent nights holding in the low teens, while the 30-year climatological low for the date sits near 10 °C. Possible showers and rising humidity late on the 23rd introduce modest uncertainty in how far temperatures can drop, keeping market-implied odds for extremes (≤7 °C or ≥17 °C) nearly balanced as traders weigh model consensus against the narrow historical spread of observed minima.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources like GFS and European agencies point to an overnight minimum in Amsterdam on September 23 of roughly 12–14 °C, shaped by a broad high-pressure ridge maintaining light southerly to westerly winds and variable cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. September 2026 has run about 1.7 °C above the long-term average so far, with recent nights holding in the low teens, while the 30-year climatological low for the date sits near 10 °C. Possible showers and rising humidity late on the 23rd introduce modest uncertainty in how far temperatures can drop, keeping market-implied odds for extremes (≤7 °C or ≥17 °C) nearly balanced as traders weigh model consensus against the narrow historical spread of observed minima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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