Current ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers project Beijing's overnight low on September 15 near 18°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that limits radiative cooling. This stable pattern, with no approaching frontal systems or significant moisture, supports the closely matched market-implied odds favoring both sub-10°C extremes and 19°C-plus outcomes, reflecting model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts. Historical averages place the date's low at 16.2°C, while recent observations show mild conditions with minimal temperature anomalies. Updated global model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria around specific thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 15?
9°C or below 80%
19°C or higher 75%
18°C 39%
14°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
9°C or below
80%
10°C
5%
11°C
5%
12°C
20%
13°C
21%
14°C
30%
15°C
20%
16°C
20%
17°C
20%
18°C
39%
19°C or higher
75%
9°C or below 80%
19°C or higher 75%
18°C 39%
14°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
9°C or below
$10 Vol.
80%
10°C
$0 Vol.
5%
11°C
$0 Vol.
5%
12°C
$0 Vol.
20%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
30%
15°C
$0 Vol.
20%
16°C
$0 Vol.
20%
17°C
$0 Vol.
20%
18°C
$10 Vol.
39%
19°C or higher
$10 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers project Beijing's overnight low on September 15 near 18°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that limits radiative cooling. This stable pattern, with no approaching frontal systems or significant moisture, supports the closely matched market-implied odds favoring both sub-10°C extremes and 19°C-plus outcomes, reflecting model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts. Historical averages place the date's low at 16.2°C, while recent observations show mild conditions with minimal temperature anomalies. Updated global model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria around specific thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers project Beijing's overnight low on September 15 near 18°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that limits radiative cooling. This stable pattern, with no approaching frontal systems or significant moisture, supports the closely matched market-implied odds favoring both sub-10°C extremes and 19°C-plus outcomes, reflecting model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts. Historical averages place the date's low at 16.2°C, while recent observations show mild conditions with minimal temperature anomalies. Updated global model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria around specific thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers project Beijing's overnight low on September 15 near 18°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that limits radiative cooling. This stable pattern, with no approaching frontal systems or significant moisture, supports the closely matched market-implied odds favoring both sub-10°C extremes and 19°C-plus outcomes, reflecting model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts. Historical averages place the date's low at 16.2°C, while recent observations show mild conditions with minimal temperature anomalies. Updated global model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria around specific thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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