**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum near 23°C for Wuhan on September 15, driven by persistent cloud cover and light easterly winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling.** Current conditions show stable late-summer warmth with highs around 29–30°C and no significant frontal passage expected until mid-week, keeping overnight lows in the low-20s Celsius range across ECMWF, GFS, and regional guidance. This creates genuine uncertainty around the precise recorded minimum, explaining the closely matched market-implied odds on both sub-17°C and 26°C+ extremes alongside elevated probabilities for 21–22°C outcomes. Key variables include evolving cloud thickness, which can suppress or enhance temperature drops, and any last-minute model shifts in steering flow. Traders will watch updated runs and official Chinese Meteorological Administration briefings for resolution signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wuhan on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Wuhan on September 15?
16°C or below 79%
26°C or higher 79%
25°C 39%
21°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
16°C or below
79%
17°C
17%
18°C
17%
19°C
5%
20°C
20%
21°C
31%
22°C
21%
23°C
20%
24°C
20%
25°C
39%
26°C or higher
79%
16°C or below 79%
26°C or higher 79%
25°C 39%
21°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
16°C or below
$10 Vol.
79%
17°C
$10 Vol.
17%
18°C
$10 Vol.
17%
19°C
$0 Vol.
5%
20°C
$0 Vol.
20%
21°C
$0 Vol.
31%
22°C
$0 Vol.
21%
23°C
$0 Vol.
20%
24°C
$0 Vol.
20%
25°C
$10 Vol.
39%
26°C or higher
$10 Vol.
79%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum near 23°C for Wuhan on September 15, driven by persistent cloud cover and light easterly winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling.** Current conditions show stable late-summer warmth with highs around 29–30°C and no significant frontal passage expected until mid-week, keeping overnight lows in the low-20s Celsius range across ECMWF, GFS, and regional guidance. This creates genuine uncertainty around the precise recorded minimum, explaining the closely matched market-implied odds on both sub-17°C and 26°C+ extremes alongside elevated probabilities for 21–22°C outcomes. Key variables include evolving cloud thickness, which can suppress or enhance temperature drops, and any last-minute model shifts in steering flow. Traders will watch updated runs and official Chinese Meteorological Administration briefings for resolution signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Volume
$50End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum near 23°C for Wuhan on September 15, driven by persistent cloud cover and light easterly winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling.** Current conditions show stable late-summer warmth with highs around 29–30°C and no significant frontal passage expected until mid-week, keeping overnight lows in the low-20s Celsius range across ECMWF, GFS, and regional guidance. This creates genuine uncertainty around the precise recorded minimum, explaining the closely matched market-implied odds on both sub-17°C and 26°C+ extremes alongside elevated probabilities for 21–22°C outcomes. Key variables include evolving cloud thickness, which can suppress or enhance temperature drops, and any last-minute model shifts in steering flow. Traders will watch updated runs and official Chinese Meteorological Administration briefings for resolution signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$50End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum near 23°C for Wuhan on September 15, driven by persistent cloud cover and light easterly winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling.** Current conditions show stable late-summer warmth with highs around 29–30°C and no significant frontal passage expected until mid-week, keeping overnight lows in the low-20s Celsius range across ECMWF, GFS, and regional guidance. This creates genuine uncertainty around the precise recorded minimum, explaining the closely matched market-implied odds on both sub-17°C and 26°C+ extremes alongside elevated probabilities for 21–22°C outcomes. Key variables include evolving cloud thickness, which can suppress or enhance temperature drops, and any last-minute model shifts in steering flow. Traders will watch updated runs and official Chinese Meteorological Administration briefings for resolution signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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