Traders see the strongest implied probability at 38.5% for a low of 18°C or below in Wuhan on September 14, reflecting model consensus around a cooler-than-average air mass moving into central China. Recent ECMWF and GFS runs indicate potential for enhanced radiative cooling under clearer skies and lighter winds, with seasonal norms for mid-September lows near 20–22°C. Key variables differentiating the closely matched outcomes include forecast spread in nocturnal cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and any late-arriving frontal passage that could moderate minimum temperatures. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble spreads highlight the usual 2–4°C uncertainty range this far ahead, underscoring why no single threshold dominates market sentiment. Updated model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wuhan on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Wuhan on September 14?
18°C or below 94%
28°C or higher 64%
19°C 39%
20°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
18°C or below
94%
19°C
39%
20°C
39%
21°C
39%
22°C
31%
23°C
27%
24°C
23%
25°C
39%
26°C
39%
27°C
39%
28°C or higher
64%
18°C or below 94%
28°C or higher 64%
19°C 39%
20°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
94%
19°C
$0 Vol.
39%
20°C
$0 Vol.
39%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
31%
23°C
$0 Vol.
27%
24°C
$0 Vol.
23%
25°C
$0 Vol.
39%
26°C
$0 Vol.
39%
27°C
$0 Vol.
39%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the strongest implied probability at 38.5% for a low of 18°C or below in Wuhan on September 14, reflecting model consensus around a cooler-than-average air mass moving into central China. Recent ECMWF and GFS runs indicate potential for enhanced radiative cooling under clearer skies and lighter winds, with seasonal norms for mid-September lows near 20–22°C. Key variables differentiating the closely matched outcomes include forecast spread in nocturnal cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and any late-arriving frontal passage that could moderate minimum temperatures. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble spreads highlight the usual 2–4°C uncertainty range this far ahead, underscoring why no single threshold dominates market sentiment. Updated model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the strongest implied probability at 38.5% for a low of 18°C or below in Wuhan on September 14, reflecting model consensus around a cooler-than-average air mass moving into central China. Recent ECMWF and GFS runs indicate potential for enhanced radiative cooling under clearer skies and lighter winds, with seasonal norms for mid-September lows near 20–22°C. Key variables differentiating the closely matched outcomes include forecast spread in nocturnal cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and any late-arriving frontal passage that could moderate minimum temperatures. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble spreads highlight the usual 2–4°C uncertainty range this far ahead, underscoring why no single threshold dominates market sentiment. Updated model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the strongest implied probability at 38.5% for a low of 18°C or below in Wuhan on September 14, reflecting model consensus around a cooler-than-average air mass moving into central China. Recent ECMWF and GFS runs indicate potential for enhanced radiative cooling under clearer skies and lighter winds, with seasonal norms for mid-September lows near 20–22°C. Key variables differentiating the closely matched outcomes include forecast spread in nocturnal cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and any late-arriving frontal passage that could moderate minimum temperatures. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble spreads highlight the usual 2–4°C uncertainty range this far ahead, underscoring why no single threshold dominates market sentiment. Updated model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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