Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF, aligned with South African Weather Service guidance, indicate a cut-off low exiting the region on September 15–16, shifting winds from northwesterly to southeasterly and promoting partial clearing overnight. This transition supports minimum temperatures near 12–13 °C in Cape Town, consistent with seasonal September baselines around 10 °C but moderated by residual moisture and moderate wind speeds of 15–25 km/h that limit radiative cooling. Model consensus shows tight clustering in this range, yet small differences in timing of cloud dissipation and wind backing create the balanced market-implied odds between the 17 °C+ and sub-8 °C outcomes. Updated SAWS briefings and next model runs ahead of the 16th will refine the exact overnight low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 16?
17°C or higher 93%
7°C or below 92%
10°C 40%
8°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
7°C or below
92%
8°C
39%
9°C
39%
10°C
40%
11°C
21%
12°C
24%
13°C
39%
14°C
39%
15°C
8%
16°C
39%
17°C or higher
93%
17°C or higher 93%
7°C or below 92%
10°C 40%
8°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
92%
8°C
$0 Vol.
39%
9°C
$0 Vol.
39%
10°C
$0 Vol.
40%
11°C
$0 Vol.
21%
12°C
$0 Vol.
24%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
8%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF, aligned with South African Weather Service guidance, indicate a cut-off low exiting the region on September 15–16, shifting winds from northwesterly to southeasterly and promoting partial clearing overnight. This transition supports minimum temperatures near 12–13 °C in Cape Town, consistent with seasonal September baselines around 10 °C but moderated by residual moisture and moderate wind speeds of 15–25 km/h that limit radiative cooling. Model consensus shows tight clustering in this range, yet small differences in timing of cloud dissipation and wind backing create the balanced market-implied odds between the 17 °C+ and sub-8 °C outcomes. Updated SAWS briefings and next model runs ahead of the 16th will refine the exact overnight low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF, aligned with South African Weather Service guidance, indicate a cut-off low exiting the region on September 15–16, shifting winds from northwesterly to southeasterly and promoting partial clearing overnight. This transition supports minimum temperatures near 12–13 °C in Cape Town, consistent with seasonal September baselines around 10 °C but moderated by residual moisture and moderate wind speeds of 15–25 km/h that limit radiative cooling. Model consensus shows tight clustering in this range, yet small differences in timing of cloud dissipation and wind backing create the balanced market-implied odds between the 17 °C+ and sub-8 °C outcomes. Updated SAWS briefings and next model runs ahead of the 16th will refine the exact overnight low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF, aligned with South African Weather Service guidance, indicate a cut-off low exiting the region on September 15–16, shifting winds from northwesterly to southeasterly and promoting partial clearing overnight. This transition supports minimum temperatures near 12–13 °C in Cape Town, consistent with seasonal September baselines around 10 °C but moderated by residual moisture and moderate wind speeds of 15–25 km/h that limit radiative cooling. Model consensus shows tight clustering in this range, yet small differences in timing of cloud dissipation and wind backing create the balanced market-implied odds between the 17 °C+ and sub-8 °C outcomes. Updated SAWS briefings and next model runs ahead of the 16th will refine the exact overnight low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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