Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a weather system bringing widespread cloud cover, light to moderate rain, and northerly winds to Chengdu on September 15, suppressing radiative cooling and holding overnight lows in the 16–19°C range. This pattern aligns with typical early-autumn frontal passages that moderate diurnal temperature swings. Market-implied odds favoring 24°C or higher (48.5%) likely reflect lingering uncertainty around exact minimum timing and potential model spread, while probabilities clustered near 18–20°C (around 20% each) capture the consensus from current guidance. Updated runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles will clarify whether persistent precipitation or clearing skies shift the final recorded low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 15?
24°C or higher 95%
18°C 21%
19°C 21%
20°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
19%
16°C
20%
17°C
20%
18°C
21%
19°C
21%
20°C
21%
21°C
20%
22°C
10%
23°C
19%
24°C or higher
95%
24°C or higher 95%
18°C 21%
19°C 21%
20°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
14°C or below
$10 Vol.
1%
15°C
$56 Vol.
19%
16°C
$0 Vol.
20%
17°C
$0 Vol.
20%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
21%
20°C
$0 Vol.
21%
21°C
$0 Vol.
20%
22°C
$0 Vol.
10%
23°C
$10 Vol.
19%
24°C or higher
$10 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a weather system bringing widespread cloud cover, light to moderate rain, and northerly winds to Chengdu on September 15, suppressing radiative cooling and holding overnight lows in the 16–19°C range. This pattern aligns with typical early-autumn frontal passages that moderate diurnal temperature swings. Market-implied odds favoring 24°C or higher (48.5%) likely reflect lingering uncertainty around exact minimum timing and potential model spread, while probabilities clustered near 18–20°C (around 20% each) capture the consensus from current guidance. Updated runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles will clarify whether persistent precipitation or clearing skies shift the final recorded low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Volume
$86End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a weather system bringing widespread cloud cover, light to moderate rain, and northerly winds to Chengdu on September 15, suppressing radiative cooling and holding overnight lows in the 16–19°C range. This pattern aligns with typical early-autumn frontal passages that moderate diurnal temperature swings. Market-implied odds favoring 24°C or higher (48.5%) likely reflect lingering uncertainty around exact minimum timing and potential model spread, while probabilities clustered near 18–20°C (around 20% each) capture the consensus from current guidance. Updated runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles will clarify whether persistent precipitation or clearing skies shift the final recorded low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$86End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a weather system bringing widespread cloud cover, light to moderate rain, and northerly winds to Chengdu on September 15, suppressing radiative cooling and holding overnight lows in the 16–19°C range. This pattern aligns with typical early-autumn frontal passages that moderate diurnal temperature swings. Market-implied odds favoring 24°C or higher (48.5%) likely reflect lingering uncertainty around exact minimum timing and potential model spread, while probabilities clustered near 18–20°C (around 20% each) capture the consensus from current guidance. Updated runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles will clarify whether persistent precipitation or clearing skies shift the final recorded low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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