Current forecast models from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate minimum temperatures in Chengdu on September 14 near 17–19°C, close to the September climatological average of about 19°C. Variable cloud cover and light rain expected that night introduce uncertainty in radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift overnight lows by several degrees depending on timing and intensity. These factors explain the balanced market-implied odds, with substantial probability assigned to both sub-14°C and 23°C-plus outcomes reflecting divergence across ensemble members. Traders are likely monitoring updated runs ahead of resolution, as small changes in precipitation or wind patterns could alter the minimum recorded at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 14?
13°C or below 66%
23°C or higher 66%
14°C 39%
15°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
13°C or below
66%
14°C
39%
15°C
39%
16°C
39%
17°C
25%
18°C
30%
19°C
24%
20°C
39%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C or higher
66%
13°C or below 66%
23°C or higher 66%
14°C 39%
15°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
66%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C
$0 Vol.
25%
18°C
$0 Vol.
30%
19°C
$0 Vol.
24%
20°C
$0 Vol.
39%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate minimum temperatures in Chengdu on September 14 near 17–19°C, close to the September climatological average of about 19°C. Variable cloud cover and light rain expected that night introduce uncertainty in radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift overnight lows by several degrees depending on timing and intensity. These factors explain the balanced market-implied odds, with substantial probability assigned to both sub-14°C and 23°C-plus outcomes reflecting divergence across ensemble members. Traders are likely monitoring updated runs ahead of resolution, as small changes in precipitation or wind patterns could alter the minimum recorded at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate minimum temperatures in Chengdu on September 14 near 17–19°C, close to the September climatological average of about 19°C. Variable cloud cover and light rain expected that night introduce uncertainty in radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift overnight lows by several degrees depending on timing and intensity. These factors explain the balanced market-implied odds, with substantial probability assigned to both sub-14°C and 23°C-plus outcomes reflecting divergence across ensemble members. Traders are likely monitoring updated runs ahead of resolution, as small changes in precipitation or wind patterns could alter the minimum recorded at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate minimum temperatures in Chengdu on September 14 near 17–19°C, close to the September climatological average of about 19°C. Variable cloud cover and light rain expected that night introduce uncertainty in radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift overnight lows by several degrees depending on timing and intensity. These factors explain the balanced market-implied odds, with substantial probability assigned to both sub-14°C and 23°C-plus outcomes reflecting divergence across ensemble members. Traders are likely monitoring updated runs ahead of resolution, as small changes in precipitation or wind patterns could alter the minimum recorded at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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