Forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles show Chengdu's daily minimum temperature on September 12 stabilizing near 19°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 70-80%, and light northeasterly winds within the Sichuan basin that limit radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with observed trends of gradual seasonal decline from summer peaks, with no strong cold-air intrusion or clear skies to push readings lower. Recent data releases confirm minimal precipitation overnight and stable pressure gradients, keeping the implied probability highest for 19°C while assigning lower odds to sub-15°C outcomes absent a late forecast shift. Traders weigh these basin-specific dynamics against historical September lows averaging 17-20°C when assessing resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 12?
19°C 97%
14°C or below 96%
17°C 6%
16°C 3%
$360 Vol.
$360 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
14°C or below
96%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
6%
18°C
25%
19°C
74%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 97%
14°C or below 96%
17°C 6%
16°C 3%
$360 Vol.
$360 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
96%
15°C
$45 Vol.
1%
16°C
$35 Vol.
3%
17°C
$6 Vol.
6%
18°C
$74 Vol.
25%
19°C
$85 Vol.
74%
20°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$25 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles show Chengdu's daily minimum temperature on September 12 stabilizing near 19°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 70-80%, and light northeasterly winds within the Sichuan basin that limit radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with observed trends of gradual seasonal decline from summer peaks, with no strong cold-air intrusion or clear skies to push readings lower. Recent data releases confirm minimal precipitation overnight and stable pressure gradients, keeping the implied probability highest for 19°C while assigning lower odds to sub-15°C outcomes absent a late forecast shift. Traders weigh these basin-specific dynamics against historical September lows averaging 17-20°C when assessing resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$360End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles show Chengdu's daily minimum temperature on September 12 stabilizing near 19°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 70-80%, and light northeasterly winds within the Sichuan basin that limit radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with observed trends of gradual seasonal decline from summer peaks, with no strong cold-air intrusion or clear skies to push readings lower. Recent data releases confirm minimal precipitation overnight and stable pressure gradients, keeping the implied probability highest for 19°C while assigning lower odds to sub-15°C outcomes absent a late forecast shift. Traders weigh these basin-specific dynamics against historical September lows averaging 17-20°C when assessing resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$360End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles show Chengdu's daily minimum temperature on September 12 stabilizing near 19°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 70-80%, and light northeasterly winds within the Sichuan basin that limit radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with observed trends of gradual seasonal decline from summer peaks, with no strong cold-air intrusion or clear skies to push readings lower. Recent data releases confirm minimal precipitation overnight and stable pressure gradients, keeping the implied probability highest for 19°C while assigning lower odds to sub-15°C outcomes absent a late forecast shift. Traders weigh these basin-specific dynamics against historical September lows averaging 17-20°C when assessing resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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