Traders see near-even odds between a minimum of 20°C or below and 30°C or higher for Guangzhou on September 21 because forecast models diverge on the extent of cloud cover and thunderstorms tied to the northeast monsoon currently influencing the South China coast. Persistent rain or thick clouds would limit nighttime radiative cooling and keep the low closer to the seasonal average of 23–25°C, while clearer intervals could allow greater heat loss and push readings toward the lower tail of historical distributions. Recent guidance shows 50–70% rain chances with embedded thunderstorms, introducing uncertainty around exact minimum thresholds. New runs from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours will likely clarify steering patterns and moisture profiles ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 21?
20°C or below 96%
30°C or higher 95%
28°C 40%
21°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
20°C or below
96%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
39%
25°C
21%
26°C
22%
27°C
22%
28°C
40%
29°C
39%
30°C or higher
95%
20°C or below 96%
30°C or higher 95%
28°C 40%
21°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
96%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
39%
25°C
$0 Vol.
21%
26°C
$0 Vol.
22%
27°C
$0 Vol.
22%
28°C
$0 Vol.
40%
29°C
$0 Vol.
39%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see near-even odds between a minimum of 20°C or below and 30°C or higher for Guangzhou on September 21 because forecast models diverge on the extent of cloud cover and thunderstorms tied to the northeast monsoon currently influencing the South China coast. Persistent rain or thick clouds would limit nighttime radiative cooling and keep the low closer to the seasonal average of 23–25°C, while clearer intervals could allow greater heat loss and push readings toward the lower tail of historical distributions. Recent guidance shows 50–70% rain chances with embedded thunderstorms, introducing uncertainty around exact minimum thresholds. New runs from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours will likely clarify steering patterns and moisture profiles ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see near-even odds between a minimum of 20°C or below and 30°C or higher for Guangzhou on September 21 because forecast models diverge on the extent of cloud cover and thunderstorms tied to the northeast monsoon currently influencing the South China coast. Persistent rain or thick clouds would limit nighttime radiative cooling and keep the low closer to the seasonal average of 23–25°C, while clearer intervals could allow greater heat loss and push readings toward the lower tail of historical distributions. Recent guidance shows 50–70% rain chances with embedded thunderstorms, introducing uncertainty around exact minimum thresholds. New runs from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours will likely clarify steering patterns and moisture profiles ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see near-even odds between a minimum of 20°C or below and 30°C or higher for Guangzhou on September 21 because forecast models diverge on the extent of cloud cover and thunderstorms tied to the northeast monsoon currently influencing the South China coast. Persistent rain or thick clouds would limit nighttime radiative cooling and keep the low closer to the seasonal average of 23–25°C, while clearer intervals could allow greater heat loss and push readings toward the lower tail of historical distributions. Recent guidance shows 50–70% rain chances with embedded thunderstorms, introducing uncertainty around exact minimum thresholds. New runs from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours will likely clarify steering patterns and moisture profiles ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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