**Trader sentiment for London's lowest temperature on August 28 centers on the closely matched 16°C (43.5%) and 17°C (37%) outcomes, reflecting model consensus around a minimum in that narrow range amid lingering uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling.** Official guidance from the Met Office indicates a minimum near 17°C, with hourly profiles showing early-morning values dipping to around 16°C under southwesterly flow. Other ensembles and statistical guidance place the low slightly cooler near 15–16°C. The market spread captures the typical spread between deterministic and ensemble forecasts at this 48-hour lead time. Key drivers include the passage of a frontal system and associated showers on the 27th–28th, which advect cooler maritime air and increase low-level moisture. Overnight, variable cloud cover and wind speeds (generally 5–10 mph from the southwest) will modulate how much longwave radiation escapes, directly influencing the depth of the nocturnal temperature drop. Clearer breaks favor the lower end of the range by enhancing surface cooling; persistent low cloud or showers would keep readings closer to 17°C through greater mixing and latent heat release. With resolution only two days away, fresh model runs and observational updates from the Met Office will likely tighten the distribution. Historical August minima in London average near 14°C, but the current unsettled pattern supports values several degrees above that baseline. Traders appear to be weighting the balance between these dynamical factors rather than any single outlier scenario.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 28?
Lowest temperature in London on August 28?
16°C 45%
17°C 37%
15°C 14%
12°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
11°C or below
3%
12°C
7%
13°C
2%
14°C
5%
15°C
14%
16°C
45%
17°C
37%
18°C
6%
19°C
5%
20°C
1%
21°C or higher
1%
16°C 45%
17°C 37%
15°C 14%
12°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
11°C or below
$27 Vol.
3%
12°C
$27 Vol.
7%
13°C
$32 Vol.
2%
14°C
$52 Vol.
5%
15°C
$54 Vol.
14%
16°C
$106 Vol.
45%
17°C
$47 Vol.
37%
18°C
$20 Vol.
6%
19°C
$20 Vol.
5%
20°C
$29 Vol.
1%
21°C or higher
$29 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for London's lowest temperature on August 28 centers on the closely matched 16°C (43.5%) and 17°C (37%) outcomes, reflecting model consensus around a minimum in that narrow range amid lingering uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling.**
Official guidance from the Met Office indicates a minimum near 17°C, with hourly profiles showing early-morning values dipping to around 16°C under southwesterly flow. Other ensembles and statistical guidance place the low slightly cooler near 15–16°C. The market spread captures the typical spread between deterministic and ensemble forecasts at this 48-hour lead time.
Key drivers include the passage of a frontal system and associated showers on the 27th–28th, which advect cooler maritime air and increase low-level moisture. Overnight, variable cloud cover and wind speeds (generally 5–10 mph from the southwest) will modulate how much longwave radiation escapes, directly influencing the depth of the nocturnal temperature drop. Clearer breaks favor the lower end of the range by enhancing surface cooling; persistent low cloud or showers would keep readings closer to 17°C through greater mixing and latent heat release.
With resolution only two days away, fresh model runs and observational updates from the Met Office will likely tighten the distribution. Historical August minima in London average near 14°C, but the current unsettled pattern supports values several degrees above that baseline. Traders appear to be weighting the balance between these dynamical factors rather than any single outlier scenario.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$442End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for London's lowest temperature on August 28 centers on the closely matched 16°C (43.5%) and 17°C (37%) outcomes, reflecting model consensus around a minimum in that narrow range amid lingering uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling.**
Official guidance from the Met Office indicates a minimum near 17°C, with hourly profiles showing early-morning values dipping to around 16°C under southwesterly flow. Other ensembles and statistical guidance place the low slightly cooler near 15–16°C. The market spread captures the typical spread between deterministic and ensemble forecasts at this 48-hour lead time.
Key drivers include the passage of a frontal system and associated showers on the 27th–28th, which advect cooler maritime air and increase low-level moisture. Overnight, variable cloud cover and wind speeds (generally 5–10 mph from the southwest) will modulate how much longwave radiation escapes, directly influencing the depth of the nocturnal temperature drop. Clearer breaks favor the lower end of the range by enhancing surface cooling; persistent low cloud or showers would keep readings closer to 17°C through greater mixing and latent heat release.
With resolution only two days away, fresh model runs and observational updates from the Met Office will likely tighten the distribution. Historical August minima in London average near 14°C, but the current unsettled pattern supports values several degrees above that baseline. Traders appear to be weighting the balance between these dynamical factors rather than any single outlier scenario.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$442End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for London's lowest temperature on August 28 centers on the closely matched 16°C (43.5%) and 17°C (37%) outcomes, reflecting model consensus around a minimum in that narrow range amid lingering uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling.** Official guidance from the Met Office indicates a minimum near 17°C, with hourly profiles showing early-morning values dipping to around 16°C under southwesterly flow. Other ensembles and statistical guidance place the low slightly cooler near 15–16°C. The market spread captures the typical spread between deterministic and ensemble forecasts at this 48-hour lead time. Key drivers include the passage of a frontal system and associated showers on the 27th–28th, which advect cooler maritime air and increase low-level moisture. Overnight, variable cloud cover and wind speeds (generally 5–10 mph from the southwest) will modulate how much longwave radiation escapes, directly influencing the depth of the nocturnal temperature drop. Clearer breaks favor the lower end of the range by enhancing surface cooling; persistent low cloud or showers would keep readings closer to 17°C through greater mixing and latent heat release. With resolution only two days away, fresh model runs and observational updates from the Met Office will likely tighten the distribution. Historical August minima in London average near 14°C, but the current unsettled pattern supports values several degrees above that baseline. Traders appear to be weighting the balance between these dynamical factors rather than any single outlier scenario.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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