Recent forecast model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to stable high-pressure conditions over the Iberian Peninsula, with clear skies favoring moderate radiative cooling overnight and supporting minimum temperatures near the 15.9°C historical average for September 13 in Madrid. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced between sub-15°C and 25°C+ outcomes because ensemble spreads show minor variations in timing of any weak frontal influence or wind patterns that could alter the daily low by 1–2°C. Dry air and light northeasterly flow limit cloud cover and enhance nocturnal temperature drops, yet current guidance keeps most projected minima in the 16–20°C range without strong cold advection. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 13?
25°C or higher 94%
15°C or below 62%
17°C 39%
18°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
15°C or below
62%
16°C
28%
17°C
39%
18°C
39%
19°C
39%
20°C
39%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
26%
25°C or higher
94%
25°C or higher 94%
15°C or below 62%
17°C 39%
18°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
62%
16°C
$0 Vol.
28%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C
$0 Vol.
39%
20°C
$0 Vol.
39%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
26%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to stable high-pressure conditions over the Iberian Peninsula, with clear skies favoring moderate radiative cooling overnight and supporting minimum temperatures near the 15.9°C historical average for September 13 in Madrid. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced between sub-15°C and 25°C+ outcomes because ensemble spreads show minor variations in timing of any weak frontal influence or wind patterns that could alter the daily low by 1–2°C. Dry air and light northeasterly flow limit cloud cover and enhance nocturnal temperature drops, yet current guidance keeps most projected minima in the 16–20°C range without strong cold advection. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to stable high-pressure conditions over the Iberian Peninsula, with clear skies favoring moderate radiative cooling overnight and supporting minimum temperatures near the 15.9°C historical average for September 13 in Madrid. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced between sub-15°C and 25°C+ outcomes because ensemble spreads show minor variations in timing of any weak frontal influence or wind patterns that could alter the daily low by 1–2°C. Dry air and light northeasterly flow limit cloud cover and enhance nocturnal temperature drops, yet current guidance keeps most projected minima in the 16–20°C range without strong cold advection. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to stable high-pressure conditions over the Iberian Peninsula, with clear skies favoring moderate radiative cooling overnight and supporting minimum temperatures near the 15.9°C historical average for September 13 in Madrid. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced between sub-15°C and 25°C+ outcomes because ensemble spreads show minor variations in timing of any weak frontal influence or wind patterns that could alter the daily low by 1–2°C. Dry air and light northeasterly flow limit cloud cover and enhance nocturnal temperature drops, yet current guidance keeps most projected minima in the 16–20°C range without strong cold advection. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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