**Forecast consensus from AEMET and major models such as GFS supports a minimum near 14°C in Madrid on September 12, 2026, under clear skies and light northeasterly winds.** High pressure maintains stable conditions with minimal cloud cover and dew points consistent with observed overnight cooling rates, aligning trader-implied odds above 99% for this outcome. Historical September lows in the region average 15–18°C, providing context for the current positioning. The market reflects aggregated assessments of real-time observational data and ensemble spreads rather than single-model certainty. Resolution hinges on official station readings at the end of the period; modest shifts in wind or humidity could still alter the final minimum within a narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 12?
14°C 99.4%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$469 Vol.
$469 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
11°C or below
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
99%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
14°C 99.4%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$469 Vol.
$469 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
11°C or below
$2 Vol.
1%
12°C
$1 Vol.
1%
13°C
$0 Vol.
1%
14°C
$49 Vol.
99%
15°C
$166 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$101 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from AEMET and major models such as GFS supports a minimum near 14°C in Madrid on September 12, 2026, under clear skies and light northeasterly winds.** High pressure maintains stable conditions with minimal cloud cover and dew points consistent with observed overnight cooling rates, aligning trader-implied odds above 99% for this outcome. Historical September lows in the region average 15–18°C, providing context for the current positioning. The market reflects aggregated assessments of real-time observational data and ensemble spreads rather than single-model certainty. Resolution hinges on official station readings at the end of the period; modest shifts in wind or humidity could still alter the final minimum within a narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$469End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from AEMET and major models such as GFS supports a minimum near 14°C in Madrid on September 12, 2026, under clear skies and light northeasterly winds.** High pressure maintains stable conditions with minimal cloud cover and dew points consistent with observed overnight cooling rates, aligning trader-implied odds above 99% for this outcome. Historical September lows in the region average 15–18°C, providing context for the current positioning. The market reflects aggregated assessments of real-time observational data and ensemble spreads rather than single-model certainty. Resolution hinges on official station readings at the end of the period; modest shifts in wind or humidity could still alter the final minimum within a narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$469End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from AEMET and major models such as GFS supports a minimum near 14°C in Madrid on September 12, 2026, under clear skies and light northeasterly winds.** High pressure maintains stable conditions with minimal cloud cover and dew points consistent with observed overnight cooling rates, aligning trader-implied odds above 99% for this outcome. Historical September lows in the region average 15–18°C, providing context for the current positioning. The market reflects aggregated assessments of real-time observational data and ensemble spreads rather than single-model certainty. Resolution hinges on official station readings at the end of the period; modest shifts in wind or humidity could still alter the final minimum within a narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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