Current forecasts from ECMWF ensembles and AEMET guidance indicate a stable high-pressure regime over central Spain through mid-September, sustaining clear skies and light variable winds that limit radiative cooling and support overnight lows near 18–20 °C for Madrid on the 15th. This places the expected daily minimum well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 15.5 °C yet below the market’s 22 °C threshold. Ensemble spread remains modest, with minor differences in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point advection creating the observed split between the 22 °C+ and sub-12 °C outcomes; no significant frontal passage or cloud cover is projected before resolution. Updated high-resolution runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the precise minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 15?
12°C or below 84%
22°C or higher 71%
13°C 39%
21°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
12°C or below
84%
13°C
39%
14°C
20%
15°C
26%
16°C
29%
17°C
21%
18°C
20%
19°C
20%
20°C
20%
21°C
39%
22°C or higher
71%
12°C or below 84%
22°C or higher 71%
13°C 39%
21°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
12°C or below
$10 Vol.
84%
13°C
$10 Vol.
39%
14°C
$0 Vol.
20%
15°C
$0 Vol.
26%
16°C
$0 Vol.
29%
17°C
$0 Vol.
21%
18°C
$0 Vol.
20%
19°C
$0 Vol.
20%
20°C
$0 Vol.
20%
21°C
$10 Vol.
39%
22°C or higher
$10 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from ECMWF ensembles and AEMET guidance indicate a stable high-pressure regime over central Spain through mid-September, sustaining clear skies and light variable winds that limit radiative cooling and support overnight lows near 18–20 °C for Madrid on the 15th. This places the expected daily minimum well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 15.5 °C yet below the market’s 22 °C threshold. Ensemble spread remains modest, with minor differences in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point advection creating the observed split between the 22 °C+ and sub-12 °C outcomes; no significant frontal passage or cloud cover is projected before resolution. Updated high-resolution runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the precise minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from ECMWF ensembles and AEMET guidance indicate a stable high-pressure regime over central Spain through mid-September, sustaining clear skies and light variable winds that limit radiative cooling and support overnight lows near 18–20 °C for Madrid on the 15th. This places the expected daily minimum well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 15.5 °C yet below the market’s 22 °C threshold. Ensemble spread remains modest, with minor differences in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point advection creating the observed split between the 22 °C+ and sub-12 °C outcomes; no significant frontal passage or cloud cover is projected before resolution. Updated high-resolution runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the precise minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from ECMWF ensembles and AEMET guidance indicate a stable high-pressure regime over central Spain through mid-September, sustaining clear skies and light variable winds that limit radiative cooling and support overnight lows near 18–20 °C for Madrid on the 15th. This places the expected daily minimum well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 15.5 °C yet below the market’s 22 °C threshold. Ensemble spread remains modest, with minor differences in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point advection creating the observed split between the 22 °C+ and sub-12 °C outcomes; no significant frontal passage or cloud cover is projected before resolution. Updated high-resolution runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the precise minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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