Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, enhanced by a nearby low-pressure area, drives current market odds by sustaining extensive cloud cover and frequent rainfall over Manila through late August. This limits nocturnal radiative cooling, anchoring the lowest temperature on August 31 near the 25–27°C range that accounts for over 75% of implied probability. Historical August nighttime lows average 25–26°C at PAGASA stations, with variations tied to cloud thickness, wind-driven mixing, and rainfall timing that suppress drops below 24°C or allow brief clear spells pushing toward 28°C. Forecasters note model consensus on continued moderate-to-heavy rains, though any overnight clearing could shift outcomes toward the lower tail.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 31?
25°C 50%
24°C 49%
28°C 49%
29°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
21°C or below
18%
22°C
26%
23°C
47%
24°C
49%
25°C
50%
26°C
27%
27°C
27%
28°C
49%
29°C
49%
30°C
29%
31°C or higher
2%
25°C 50%
24°C 49%
28°C 49%
29°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
18%
22°C
$0 Vol.
26%
23°C
$0 Vol.
47%
24°C
$0 Vol.
49%
25°C
$0 Vol.
50%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
27%
28°C
$0 Vol.
49%
29°C
$0 Vol.
49%
30°C
$0 Vol.
29%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, enhanced by a nearby low-pressure area, drives current market odds by sustaining extensive cloud cover and frequent rainfall over Manila through late August. This limits nocturnal radiative cooling, anchoring the lowest temperature on August 31 near the 25–27°C range that accounts for over 75% of implied probability. Historical August nighttime lows average 25–26°C at PAGASA stations, with variations tied to cloud thickness, wind-driven mixing, and rainfall timing that suppress drops below 24°C or allow brief clear spells pushing toward 28°C. Forecasters note model consensus on continued moderate-to-heavy rains, though any overnight clearing could shift outcomes toward the lower tail.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, enhanced by a nearby low-pressure area, drives current market odds by sustaining extensive cloud cover and frequent rainfall over Manila through late August. This limits nocturnal radiative cooling, anchoring the lowest temperature on August 31 near the 25–27°C range that accounts for over 75% of implied probability. Historical August nighttime lows average 25–26°C at PAGASA stations, with variations tied to cloud thickness, wind-driven mixing, and rainfall timing that suppress drops below 24°C or allow brief clear spells pushing toward 28°C. Forecasters note model consensus on continued moderate-to-heavy rains, though any overnight clearing could shift outcomes toward the lower tail.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, enhanced by a nearby low-pressure area, drives current market odds by sustaining extensive cloud cover and frequent rainfall over Manila through late August. This limits nocturnal radiative cooling, anchoring the lowest temperature on August 31 near the 25–27°C range that accounts for over 75% of implied probability. Historical August nighttime lows average 25–26°C at PAGASA stations, with variations tied to cloud thickness, wind-driven mixing, and rainfall timing that suppress drops below 24°C or allow brief clear spells pushing toward 28°C. Forecasters note model consensus on continued moderate-to-heavy rains, though any overnight clearing could shift outcomes toward the lower tail.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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