Recent forecasts from models such as the Met Office and local European guidance indicate a daily minimum near 14°C for Munich on August 21, 2026, driven by typical late-summer radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with light winds and dew-point temperatures supporting that threshold. This aligns with climatological baselines, where August overnight lows average 13–14°C and rarely dip below 11°C absent strong cold advection. Trader positioning around the 14°C bin reflects convergence in short-range model runs, while modest probabilities for 12–13°C capture residual uncertainty from potential clearer nocturnal conditions or minor forecast adjustments by the German Weather Service. Higher bins remain negligible as daytime heating and regional pressure patterns preclude significant warming overnight. Updated model outputs and official minimum observations will refine resolution near the daily close.