Marine layer moderation combined with post-heat-wave cooling is anchoring trader expectations for a Los Angeles high near 80°F on August 21, as persistent onshore flow from the Pacific keeps coastal and basin temperatures below inland peaks. National Weather Service guidance currently projects highs around 78°F for the immediate Los Angeles area, aligning with the market’s heaviest concentration on the 78–81°F bins (combined ~78% implied probability). This setup reflects typical late-summer patterns where the marine layer suppresses daytime warming along the coast, following recent elevated temperatures driven by a stronger Western ridge. New model runs and updated NWS forecasts over the next 24 hours represent the key variables that could shift probabilities if onshore flow weakens or the layer thins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on August 21?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 21?
80-81°F 46%
78-79°F 34%
82-83°F 11%
76-77°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
34%
80-81°F
46%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
4%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 46%
78-79°F 34%
82-83°F 11%
76-77°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
73°F or below
$290 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$37 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$776 Vol.
10%
78-79°F
$729 Vol.
34%
80-81°F
$2,310 Vol.
46%
82-83°F
$341 Vol.
11%
84-85°F
$230 Vol.
4%
86-87°F
$190 Vol.
2%
88-89°F
$34 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$37 Vol.
<1%
92°F or higher
$308 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Marine layer moderation combined with post-heat-wave cooling is anchoring trader expectations for a Los Angeles high near 80°F on August 21, as persistent onshore flow from the Pacific keeps coastal and basin temperatures below inland peaks. National Weather Service guidance currently projects highs around 78°F for the immediate Los Angeles area, aligning with the market’s heaviest concentration on the 78–81°F bins (combined ~78% implied probability). This setup reflects typical late-summer patterns where the marine layer suppresses daytime warming along the coast, following recent elevated temperatures driven by a stronger Western ridge. New model runs and updated NWS forecasts over the next 24 hours represent the key variables that could shift probabilities if onshore flow weakens or the layer thins.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 9:57 PM ET
Volume
$5,281End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Marine layer moderation combined with post-heat-wave cooling is anchoring trader expectations for a Los Angeles high near 80°F on August 21, as persistent onshore flow from the Pacific keeps coastal and basin temperatures below inland peaks. National Weather Service guidance currently projects highs around 78°F for the immediate Los Angeles area, aligning with the market’s heaviest concentration on the 78–81°F bins (combined ~78% implied probability). This setup reflects typical late-summer patterns where the marine layer suppresses daytime warming along the coast, following recent elevated temperatures driven by a stronger Western ridge. New model runs and updated NWS forecasts over the next 24 hours represent the key variables that could shift probabilities if onshore flow weakens or the layer thins.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,281End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Marine layer moderation combined with post-heat-wave cooling is anchoring trader expectations for a Los Angeles high near 80°F on August 21, as persistent onshore flow from the Pacific keeps coastal and basin temperatures below inland peaks. National Weather Service guidance currently projects highs around 78°F for the immediate Los Angeles area, aligning with the market’s heaviest concentration on the 78–81°F bins (combined ~78% implied probability). This setup reflects typical late-summer patterns where the marine layer suppresses daytime warming along the coast, following recent elevated temperatures driven by a stronger Western ridge. New model runs and updated NWS forecasts over the next 24 hours represent the key variables that could shift probabilities if onshore flow weakens or the layer thins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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