The closely matched market-implied odds around 14–16°C for São Paulo’s September 5 minimum reflect uncertainty in the timing and intensity of an advancing cold front and associated polar air mass. Official forecasts from multiple models show overnight temperatures falling to the mid-teens Celsius amid increasing cloud cover, scattered rain, and southeasterly winds that limit radiative cooling while advecting cooler maritime air. Historical September lows average near 12°C, but the current setup features higher baseline humidity and a slower frontal passage than typical spring transitions, keeping the floor above that climatological value. Key variables still in play include exact precipitation timing, which could suppress or enhance cooling, and final model consensus on the overnight low before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 5?
16°C 46%
14°C 45%
15°C 45%
13°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
12°C or below
35%
13°C
39%
14°C
45%
15°C
45%
16°C
46%
17°C
36%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
16°C 46%
14°C 45%
15°C 45%
13°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
12°C or below
$20 Vol.
35%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C
$0 Vol.
45%
15°C
$0 Vol.
45%
16°C
$0 Vol.
46%
17°C
$16 Vol.
36%
18°C
$72 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$72 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$52 Vol.
1%
21°C
$52 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$52 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market-implied odds around 14–16°C for São Paulo’s September 5 minimum reflect uncertainty in the timing and intensity of an advancing cold front and associated polar air mass. Official forecasts from multiple models show overnight temperatures falling to the mid-teens Celsius amid increasing cloud cover, scattered rain, and southeasterly winds that limit radiative cooling while advecting cooler maritime air. Historical September lows average near 12°C, but the current setup features higher baseline humidity and a slower frontal passage than typical spring transitions, keeping the floor above that climatological value. Key variables still in play include exact precipitation timing, which could suppress or enhance cooling, and final model consensus on the overnight low before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$336End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market-implied odds around 14–16°C for São Paulo’s September 5 minimum reflect uncertainty in the timing and intensity of an advancing cold front and associated polar air mass. Official forecasts from multiple models show overnight temperatures falling to the mid-teens Celsius amid increasing cloud cover, scattered rain, and southeasterly winds that limit radiative cooling while advecting cooler maritime air. Historical September lows average near 12°C, but the current setup features higher baseline humidity and a slower frontal passage than typical spring transitions, keeping the floor above that climatological value. Key variables still in play include exact precipitation timing, which could suppress or enhance cooling, and final model consensus on the overnight low before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$336End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds around 14–16°C for São Paulo’s September 5 minimum reflect uncertainty in the timing and intensity of an advancing cold front and associated polar air mass. Official forecasts from multiple models show overnight temperatures falling to the mid-teens Celsius amid increasing cloud cover, scattered rain, and southeasterly winds that limit radiative cooling while advecting cooler maritime air. Historical September lows average near 12°C, but the current setup features higher baseline humidity and a slower frontal passage than typical spring transitions, keeping the floor above that climatological value. Key variables still in play include exact precipitation timing, which could suppress or enhance cooling, and final model consensus on the overnight low before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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