Recent forecast guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international models points to persistent high-pressure conditions and mostly clear skies over Chongqing through September 7, supporting peak temperatures of 36–38 °C amid typical late-summer insolation and low precipitation probability. Recent days have seen maxima of 34–37 °C under similar anticyclonic flow, with limited cloud cover and southeasterly winds allowing strong daytime heating before a potential frontal passage and increased moisture after September 8. This pattern, combined with Chongqing’s basin topography and urban heat effects, anchors the market’s concentration on 37 °C (46.5 %) as the modal outcome while leaving room for minor model shifts in exact maximum or localized variations. Updated runs ahead of the date will be the key catalyst for any adjustment in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chongqing on September 7?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on September 7?
37°C 47%
38°C 25%
36°C 19%
34°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
32°C or below
4%
33°C
2%
34°C
13%
35°C
11%
36°C
19%
37°C
47%
38°C
25%
39°C
10%
40°C
5%
41°C
3%
42°C or higher
3%
37°C 47%
38°C 25%
36°C 19%
34°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
32°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
33°C
$0 Vol.
2%
34°C
$0 Vol.
13%
35°C
$2 Vol.
11%
36°C
$6 Vol.
19%
37°C
$24 Vol.
47%
38°C
$58 Vol.
25%
39°C
$5 Vol.
10%
40°C
$120 Vol.
5%
41°C
$108 Vol.
3%
42°C or higher
$17 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international models points to persistent high-pressure conditions and mostly clear skies over Chongqing through September 7, supporting peak temperatures of 36–38 °C amid typical late-summer insolation and low precipitation probability. Recent days have seen maxima of 34–37 °C under similar anticyclonic flow, with limited cloud cover and southeasterly winds allowing strong daytime heating before a potential frontal passage and increased moisture after September 8. This pattern, combined with Chongqing’s basin topography and urban heat effects, anchors the market’s concentration on 37 °C (46.5 %) as the modal outcome while leaving room for minor model shifts in exact maximum or localized variations. Updated runs ahead of the date will be the key catalyst for any adjustment in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$340End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international models points to persistent high-pressure conditions and mostly clear skies over Chongqing through September 7, supporting peak temperatures of 36–38 °C amid typical late-summer insolation and low precipitation probability. Recent days have seen maxima of 34–37 °C under similar anticyclonic flow, with limited cloud cover and southeasterly winds allowing strong daytime heating before a potential frontal passage and increased moisture after September 8. This pattern, combined with Chongqing’s basin topography and urban heat effects, anchors the market’s concentration on 37 °C (46.5 %) as the modal outcome while leaving room for minor model shifts in exact maximum or localized variations. Updated runs ahead of the date will be the key catalyst for any adjustment in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$340End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international models points to persistent high-pressure conditions and mostly clear skies over Chongqing through September 7, supporting peak temperatures of 36–38 °C amid typical late-summer insolation and low precipitation probability. Recent days have seen maxima of 34–37 °C under similar anticyclonic flow, with limited cloud cover and southeasterly winds allowing strong daytime heating before a potential frontal passage and increased moisture after September 8. This pattern, combined with Chongqing’s basin topography and urban heat effects, anchors the market’s concentration on 37 °C (46.5 %) as the modal outcome while leaving room for minor model shifts in exact maximum or localized variations. Updated runs ahead of the date will be the key catalyst for any adjustment in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions