Recent National Weather Service guidance points to a Friday high near 92°F for Houston amid southeast flow, high humidity, and a 50% chance of afternoon thunderstorms that could limit peak heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Trader consensus clustering on 86–89°F reflects uncertainty in storm timing and coverage, which often caps daily maxima below model guidance in late-summer Gulf Coast regimes. The climatological average of 91°F provides context, yet convective inhibition or earlier outflow boundaries could shift the observed high several degrees lower, while clearer conditions would support readings in the low 90s. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through September 3 remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on September 4?
Highest temperature in Houston on September 4?
86-87°F 47%
88-89°F 32%
90-91°F 17%
84-85°F 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
81°F or below
1%
82-83°F
6%
84-85°F
16%
86-87°F
47%
88-89°F
32%
90-91°F
17%
92-93°F
10%
94-95°F
4%
96-97°F
7%
98-99°F
7%
100°F or higher
7%
86-87°F 47%
88-89°F 32%
90-91°F 17%
84-85°F 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
81°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$20 Vol.
6%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
16%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
47%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
32%
90-91°F
$234 Vol.
17%
92-93°F
$26 Vol.
10%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
4%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
7%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
7%
100°F or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance points to a Friday high near 92°F for Houston amid southeast flow, high humidity, and a 50% chance of afternoon thunderstorms that could limit peak heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Trader consensus clustering on 86–89°F reflects uncertainty in storm timing and coverage, which often caps daily maxima below model guidance in late-summer Gulf Coast regimes. The climatological average of 91°F provides context, yet convective inhibition or earlier outflow boundaries could shift the observed high several degrees lower, while clearer conditions would support readings in the low 90s. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through September 3 remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$280End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance points to a Friday high near 92°F for Houston amid southeast flow, high humidity, and a 50% chance of afternoon thunderstorms that could limit peak heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Trader consensus clustering on 86–89°F reflects uncertainty in storm timing and coverage, which often caps daily maxima below model guidance in late-summer Gulf Coast regimes. The climatological average of 91°F provides context, yet convective inhibition or earlier outflow boundaries could shift the observed high several degrees lower, while clearer conditions would support readings in the low 90s. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through September 3 remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$280End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance points to a Friday high near 92°F for Houston amid southeast flow, high humidity, and a 50% chance of afternoon thunderstorms that could limit peak heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Trader consensus clustering on 86–89°F reflects uncertainty in storm timing and coverage, which often caps daily maxima below model guidance in late-summer Gulf Coast regimes. The climatological average of 91°F provides context, yet convective inhibition or earlier outflow boundaries could shift the observed high several degrees lower, while clearer conditions would support readings in the low 90s. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through September 3 remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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