Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate overnight lows for Dallas on September 4 will likely settle in the mid-to-upper 70s amid a warm, humid southerly flow with minimal radiational cooling under partly to mostly clear skies. This aligns with the market's leading 78-79°F bin at 37.5% implied probability, followed closely by 76-77°F, as persistent Gulf moisture and light winds limit temperature drops below seasonal norms (historical average low near 74°F). The notable 27.5% on 69°F or below reflects residual model spread and potential for localized variations or forecast revisions closer to the event, while higher bins remain low-probability given the entrenched warm air mass. Traders are monitoring the next NWS forecast updates and high-resolution model runs for any shifts in steering patterns or dewpoint trends that could tighten the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Dallas on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Dallas on September 4?
69°F or below 55%
88°F or higher 54%
78-79°F 35%
76-77°F 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
69°F or below
55%
70-71°F
15%
72-73°F
15%
74-75°F
18%
76-77°F
29%
78-79°F
35%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
8%
88°F or higher
54%
69°F or below 55%
88°F or higher 54%
78-79°F 35%
76-77°F 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
55%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
15%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
15%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
18%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
29%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
35%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
19%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
8%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
8%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
8%
88°F or higher
$0 Vol.
54%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate overnight lows for Dallas on September 4 will likely settle in the mid-to-upper 70s amid a warm, humid southerly flow with minimal radiational cooling under partly to mostly clear skies. This aligns with the market's leading 78-79°F bin at 37.5% implied probability, followed closely by 76-77°F, as persistent Gulf moisture and light winds limit temperature drops below seasonal norms (historical average low near 74°F). The notable 27.5% on 69°F or below reflects residual model spread and potential for localized variations or forecast revisions closer to the event, while higher bins remain low-probability given the entrenched warm air mass. Traders are monitoring the next NWS forecast updates and high-resolution model runs for any shifts in steering patterns or dewpoint trends that could tighten the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate overnight lows for Dallas on September 4 will likely settle in the mid-to-upper 70s amid a warm, humid southerly flow with minimal radiational cooling under partly to mostly clear skies. This aligns with the market's leading 78-79°F bin at 37.5% implied probability, followed closely by 76-77°F, as persistent Gulf moisture and light winds limit temperature drops below seasonal norms (historical average low near 74°F). The notable 27.5% on 69°F or below reflects residual model spread and potential for localized variations or forecast revisions closer to the event, while higher bins remain low-probability given the entrenched warm air mass. Traders are monitoring the next NWS forecast updates and high-resolution model runs for any shifts in steering patterns or dewpoint trends that could tighten the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate overnight lows for Dallas on September 4 will likely settle in the mid-to-upper 70s amid a warm, humid southerly flow with minimal radiational cooling under partly to mostly clear skies. This aligns with the market's leading 78-79°F bin at 37.5% implied probability, followed closely by 76-77°F, as persistent Gulf moisture and light winds limit temperature drops below seasonal norms (historical average low near 74°F). The notable 27.5% on 69°F or below reflects residual model spread and potential for localized variations or forecast revisions closer to the event, while higher bins remain low-probability given the entrenched warm air mass. Traders are monitoring the next NWS forecast updates and high-resolution model runs for any shifts in steering patterns or dewpoint trends that could tighten the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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