Persistent southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico and weak pressure gradients are sustaining elevated dew points and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling across central Texas, keeping forecast overnight lows for Austin on September 4 in the mid-70s°F according to National Weather Service guidance. Model consensus shows only modest variability from partly cloudy conditions and light winds, with no strong cold front or dry-air intrusion expected to produce sharper drops. This setup explains the clustering of market-implied probabilities around 74–79°F ranges, while the notable shares on sub-70°F or 88°F+ outcomes likely reflect residual uncertainty in longer-range guidance or mispricing of typical late-summer minimums rather than current atmospheric signals. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will be key for refining the exact minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 4?
69°F or below 69%
88°F or higher 59%
74-75°F 50%
76-77°F 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
69°F or below
69%
70-71°F
49%
72-73°F
49%
74-75°F
50%
76-77°F
50%
78-79°F
49%
80-81°F
49%
82-83°F
49%
84-85°F
34%
86-87°F
33%
88°F or higher
59%
69°F or below 69%
88°F or higher 59%
74-75°F 50%
76-77°F 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
69%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
49%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
49%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
50%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
50%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
49%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
49%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
49%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
34%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
33%
88°F or higher
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico and weak pressure gradients are sustaining elevated dew points and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling across central Texas, keeping forecast overnight lows for Austin on September 4 in the mid-70s°F according to National Weather Service guidance. Model consensus shows only modest variability from partly cloudy conditions and light winds, with no strong cold front or dry-air intrusion expected to produce sharper drops. This setup explains the clustering of market-implied probabilities around 74–79°F ranges, while the notable shares on sub-70°F or 88°F+ outcomes likely reflect residual uncertainty in longer-range guidance or mispricing of typical late-summer minimums rather than current atmospheric signals. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will be key for refining the exact minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico and weak pressure gradients are sustaining elevated dew points and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling across central Texas, keeping forecast overnight lows for Austin on September 4 in the mid-70s°F according to National Weather Service guidance. Model consensus shows only modest variability from partly cloudy conditions and light winds, with no strong cold front or dry-air intrusion expected to produce sharper drops. This setup explains the clustering of market-implied probabilities around 74–79°F ranges, while the notable shares on sub-70°F or 88°F+ outcomes likely reflect residual uncertainty in longer-range guidance or mispricing of typical late-summer minimums rather than current atmospheric signals. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will be key for refining the exact minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico and weak pressure gradients are sustaining elevated dew points and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling across central Texas, keeping forecast overnight lows for Austin on September 4 in the mid-70s°F according to National Weather Service guidance. Model consensus shows only modest variability from partly cloudy conditions and light winds, with no strong cold front or dry-air intrusion expected to produce sharper drops. This setup explains the clustering of market-implied probabilities around 74–79°F ranges, while the notable shares on sub-70°F or 88°F+ outcomes likely reflect residual uncertainty in longer-range guidance or mispricing of typical late-summer minimums rather than current atmospheric signals. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will be key for refining the exact minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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