Recent forecasts from global models indicate a mild spring day in Cape Town on September 4, with clear skies and strong southeasterly winds limiting daytime heating to a maximum near 19°C. A high-pressure system building after Thursday’s cooler, rainy conditions and gusty SE flow is expected to bring mostly sunny weather, though the persistent “Cape Doctor” winds will moderate temperatures. Consensus across sources points to afternoon peaks of 18–20°C, aligning with historical September averages around 18°C and explaining the market’s heavy weighting toward 19°C and 20°C outcomes. Minor model spread leaves room for 21°C if winds ease slightly, while colder scenarios remain unlikely given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated runs from agencies like the South African Weather Service will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on September 4?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on September 4?
20°C 47%
19°C 31%
21°C 16%
18°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
7%
19°C
31%
20°C
47%
21°C
16%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
1%
20°C 47%
19°C 31%
21°C 16%
18°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
14°C or below
$142 Vol.
1%
15°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$255 Vol.
1%
17°C
$122 Vol.
3%
18°C
$76 Vol.
7%
19°C
$2,908 Vol.
31%
20°C
$336 Vol.
47%
21°C
$349 Vol.
16%
22°C
$78 Vol.
1%
23°C
$58 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$122 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global models indicate a mild spring day in Cape Town on September 4, with clear skies and strong southeasterly winds limiting daytime heating to a maximum near 19°C. A high-pressure system building after Thursday’s cooler, rainy conditions and gusty SE flow is expected to bring mostly sunny weather, though the persistent “Cape Doctor” winds will moderate temperatures. Consensus across sources points to afternoon peaks of 18–20°C, aligning with historical September averages around 18°C and explaining the market’s heavy weighting toward 19°C and 20°C outcomes. Minor model spread leaves room for 21°C if winds ease slightly, while colder scenarios remain unlikely given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated runs from agencies like the South African Weather Service will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$4,457End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global models indicate a mild spring day in Cape Town on September 4, with clear skies and strong southeasterly winds limiting daytime heating to a maximum near 19°C. A high-pressure system building after Thursday’s cooler, rainy conditions and gusty SE flow is expected to bring mostly sunny weather, though the persistent “Cape Doctor” winds will moderate temperatures. Consensus across sources points to afternoon peaks of 18–20°C, aligning with historical September averages around 18°C and explaining the market’s heavy weighting toward 19°C and 20°C outcomes. Minor model spread leaves room for 21°C if winds ease slightly, while colder scenarios remain unlikely given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated runs from agencies like the South African Weather Service will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,457End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from global models indicate a mild spring day in Cape Town on September 4, with clear skies and strong southeasterly winds limiting daytime heating to a maximum near 19°C. A high-pressure system building after Thursday’s cooler, rainy conditions and gusty SE flow is expected to bring mostly sunny weather, though the persistent “Cape Doctor” winds will moderate temperatures. Consensus across sources points to afternoon peaks of 18–20°C, aligning with historical September averages around 18°C and explaining the market’s heavy weighting toward 19°C and 20°C outcomes. Minor model spread leaves room for 21°C if winds ease slightly, while colder scenarios remain unlikely given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated runs from agencies like the South African Weather Service will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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