Recent forecasts for Cape Town indicate a cut-off low-pressure system arriving on September 3, driving southeast winds up to 30+ km/h, increased cloud cover, and showers that enhance radiative cooling overnight while limiting daytime warming. This setup favors minimum temperatures near 11–12°C, consistent with historical spring baselines of 9–11°C under similar synoptic patterns, though model spread arises from variable timing of frontal passage, boundary-layer mixing from gusty flow, and localized orographic effects around Table Mountain. Trader consensus across closely matched probabilities for 7–14°C outcomes reflects uncertainty in ensemble guidance on exact overnight minima, with the leading 7°C-or-below share capturing downside risk if the system intensifies faster than expected. Updated NWP runs and SA Weather Service briefings ahead of landfall timing will likely refine these ranges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 3?
7°C or below 69%
17°C or higher 59%
8°C 49%
11°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
7°C or below
69%
8°C
49%
9°C
26%
10°C
27%
11°C
29%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
25%
15°C
20%
16°C
2%
17°C or higher
59%
7°C or below 69%
17°C or higher 59%
8°C 49%
11°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
7°C or below
$5 Vol.
69%
8°C
$5 Vol.
49%
9°C
$0 Vol.
26%
10°C
$0 Vol.
27%
11°C
$0 Vol.
29%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
25%
15°C
$5 Vol.
20%
16°C
$5 Vol.
2%
17°C or higher
$5 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Cape Town indicate a cut-off low-pressure system arriving on September 3, driving southeast winds up to 30+ km/h, increased cloud cover, and showers that enhance radiative cooling overnight while limiting daytime warming. This setup favors minimum temperatures near 11–12°C, consistent with historical spring baselines of 9–11°C under similar synoptic patterns, though model spread arises from variable timing of frontal passage, boundary-layer mixing from gusty flow, and localized orographic effects around Table Mountain. Trader consensus across closely matched probabilities for 7–14°C outcomes reflects uncertainty in ensemble guidance on exact overnight minima, with the leading 7°C-or-below share capturing downside risk if the system intensifies faster than expected. Updated NWP runs and SA Weather Service briefings ahead of landfall timing will likely refine these ranges.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Cape Town indicate a cut-off low-pressure system arriving on September 3, driving southeast winds up to 30+ km/h, increased cloud cover, and showers that enhance radiative cooling overnight while limiting daytime warming. This setup favors minimum temperatures near 11–12°C, consistent with historical spring baselines of 9–11°C under similar synoptic patterns, though model spread arises from variable timing of frontal passage, boundary-layer mixing from gusty flow, and localized orographic effects around Table Mountain. Trader consensus across closely matched probabilities for 7–14°C outcomes reflects uncertainty in ensemble guidance on exact overnight minima, with the leading 7°C-or-below share capturing downside risk if the system intensifies faster than expected. Updated NWP runs and SA Weather Service briefings ahead of landfall timing will likely refine these ranges.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts for Cape Town indicate a cut-off low-pressure system arriving on September 3, driving southeast winds up to 30+ km/h, increased cloud cover, and showers that enhance radiative cooling overnight while limiting daytime warming. This setup favors minimum temperatures near 11–12°C, consistent with historical spring baselines of 9–11°C under similar synoptic patterns, though model spread arises from variable timing of frontal passage, boundary-layer mixing from gusty flow, and localized orographic effects around Table Mountain. Trader consensus across closely matched probabilities for 7–14°C outcomes reflects uncertainty in ensemble guidance on exact overnight minima, with the leading 7°C-or-below share capturing downside risk if the system intensifies faster than expected. Updated NWP runs and SA Weather Service briefings ahead of landfall timing will likely refine these ranges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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