**Strong scientific consensus from multiple weather models and real-time observations supports the market's overwhelming 97.5% implied probability on a 32°C daily maximum in Tel Aviv on September 1, 2026.** Forecasts from sources including the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS), ECMWF-influenced models, and U.S./European guidance consistently project a high near 31–32°C (88–89°F) under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with northwest winds of 6–11 mph moderating humidity but allowing peak afternoon heating around solar noon. Current conditions as of midday local time show temperatures already climbing through the upper 20s°C with low precipitation risk and UV indices peaking near 9, aligning with typical early-September climatology for the coastal plain where land-sea breezes and subsidence often cap extremes. This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of verified observational data and ensemble model agreement rather than speculation. Realistic challenges to 32°C resolution would require substantial late-day cooling from unexpected cloud build-up, a sharper sea breeze, or official station readings (e.g., from Ben Gurion or central Tel Aviv sites) falling to 31°C or below due to microclimate effects—scenarios not indicated in the latest model runs or surface observations. Higher outcomes like 33°C+ remain improbable without rapid atmospheric destabilization not supported by current pressure fields or steering patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 1?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 1?
32°C 99%
33°C 5%
34°C <1%
30°C or below <1%
$37,257 Vol.
$37,257 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
99%
33°C
5%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
32°C 99%
33°C 5%
34°C <1%
30°C or below <1%
$37,257 Vol.
$37,257 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
30°C or below
$1,321 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$17,073 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$6,157 Vol.
99%
33°C
$7,555 Vol.
5%
34°C
$2,032 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$88 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$760 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$1,196 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$395 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$340 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$340 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong scientific consensus from multiple weather models and real-time observations supports the market's overwhelming 97.5% implied probability on a 32°C daily maximum in Tel Aviv on September 1, 2026.**
Forecasts from sources including the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS), ECMWF-influenced models, and U.S./European guidance consistently project a high near 31–32°C (88–89°F) under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with northwest winds of 6–11 mph moderating humidity but allowing peak afternoon heating around solar noon. Current conditions as of midday local time show temperatures already climbing through the upper 20s°C with low precipitation risk and UV indices peaking near 9, aligning with typical early-September climatology for the coastal plain where land-sea breezes and subsidence often cap extremes.
This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of verified observational data and ensemble model agreement rather than speculation. Realistic challenges to 32°C resolution would require substantial late-day cooling from unexpected cloud build-up, a sharper sea breeze, or official station readings (e.g., from Ben Gurion or central Tel Aviv sites) falling to 31°C or below due to microclimate effects—scenarios not indicated in the latest model runs or surface observations. Higher outcomes like 33°C+ remain improbable without rapid atmospheric destabilization not supported by current pressure fields or steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$37,257End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong scientific consensus from multiple weather models and real-time observations supports the market's overwhelming 97.5% implied probability on a 32°C daily maximum in Tel Aviv on September 1, 2026.**
Forecasts from sources including the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS), ECMWF-influenced models, and U.S./European guidance consistently project a high near 31–32°C (88–89°F) under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with northwest winds of 6–11 mph moderating humidity but allowing peak afternoon heating around solar noon. Current conditions as of midday local time show temperatures already climbing through the upper 20s°C with low precipitation risk and UV indices peaking near 9, aligning with typical early-September climatology for the coastal plain where land-sea breezes and subsidence often cap extremes.
This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of verified observational data and ensemble model agreement rather than speculation. Realistic challenges to 32°C resolution would require substantial late-day cooling from unexpected cloud build-up, a sharper sea breeze, or official station readings (e.g., from Ben Gurion or central Tel Aviv sites) falling to 31°C or below due to microclimate effects—scenarios not indicated in the latest model runs or surface observations. Higher outcomes like 33°C+ remain improbable without rapid atmospheric destabilization not supported by current pressure fields or steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$37,257End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong scientific consensus from multiple weather models and real-time observations supports the market's overwhelming 97.5% implied probability on a 32°C daily maximum in Tel Aviv on September 1, 2026.** Forecasts from sources including the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS), ECMWF-influenced models, and U.S./European guidance consistently project a high near 31–32°C (88–89°F) under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with northwest winds of 6–11 mph moderating humidity but allowing peak afternoon heating around solar noon. Current conditions as of midday local time show temperatures already climbing through the upper 20s°C with low precipitation risk and UV indices peaking near 9, aligning with typical early-September climatology for the coastal plain where land-sea breezes and subsidence often cap extremes. This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of verified observational data and ensemble model agreement rather than speculation. Realistic challenges to 32°C resolution would require substantial late-day cooling from unexpected cloud build-up, a sharper sea breeze, or official station readings (e.g., from Ben Gurion or central Tel Aviv sites) falling to 31°C or below due to microclimate effects—scenarios not indicated in the latest model runs or surface observations. Higher outcomes like 33°C+ remain improbable without rapid atmospheric destabilization not supported by current pressure fields or steering patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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