Trader consensus, with 67.5% implied probability on 32°C as the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 3, arises from consistent short-range numerical weather model guidance projecting a maximum near 31–32°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly flow. Early September climatology supports this range, with typical highs around 30–32°C and low precipitation risk. Limited spread in ensemble outputs reduces odds for 33°C (21%) or cooler values below 31°C, though minor shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind patterns could alter the exact peak. Updated model runs from agencies like the Israel Meteorological Service over the next 48 hours remain the key catalyst for any probability adjustments ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 3?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 3?
32°C 70%
33°C 21%
31°C 6%
30°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
29°C or below
1%
30°C
3%
31°C
6%
32°C
70%
33°C
21%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
32°C 70%
33°C 21%
31°C 6%
30°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
29°C or below
$108 Vol.
1%
30°C
$453 Vol.
3%
31°C
$252 Vol.
6%
32°C
$1,058 Vol.
70%
33°C
$393 Vol.
21%
34°C
$140 Vol.
1%
35°C
$68 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$282 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$336 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$306 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$306 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus, with 67.5% implied probability on 32°C as the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 3, arises from consistent short-range numerical weather model guidance projecting a maximum near 31–32°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly flow. Early September climatology supports this range, with typical highs around 30–32°C and low precipitation risk. Limited spread in ensemble outputs reduces odds for 33°C (21%) or cooler values below 31°C, though minor shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind patterns could alter the exact peak. Updated model runs from agencies like the Israel Meteorological Service over the next 48 hours remain the key catalyst for any probability adjustments ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,701End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus, with 67.5% implied probability on 32°C as the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 3, arises from consistent short-range numerical weather model guidance projecting a maximum near 31–32°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly flow. Early September climatology supports this range, with typical highs around 30–32°C and low precipitation risk. Limited spread in ensemble outputs reduces odds for 33°C (21%) or cooler values below 31°C, though minor shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind patterns could alter the exact peak. Updated model runs from agencies like the Israel Meteorological Service over the next 48 hours remain the key catalyst for any probability adjustments ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,701End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus, with 67.5% implied probability on 32°C as the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 3, arises from consistent short-range numerical weather model guidance projecting a maximum near 31–32°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly flow. Early September climatology supports this range, with typical highs around 30–32°C and low precipitation risk. Limited spread in ensemble outputs reduces odds for 33°C (21%) or cooler values below 31°C, though minor shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind patterns could alter the exact peak. Updated model runs from agencies like the Israel Meteorological Service over the next 48 hours remain the key catalyst for any probability adjustments ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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