Current National Weather Service and model guidance for Miami on September 4, 2026, projects overnight lows clustered in the upper 70s to low 80s amid a persistently warm, moist subtropical airmass with high precipitable water values and widespread thunderstorm activity. Frequent cloud cover and humidity from recent tropical moisture influx limit radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures above typical early-September climatological values near 77°F. This forecast consensus, with limited model spread expected through the short-term window, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward the 78–83°F range, where combined implied probability exceeds 90%. Minor variations in storm timing or steering could still shift the exact low within that band before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Miami on September 4?
82-83°F 43%
80-81°F 41%
78-79°F 29%
76-77°F 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
73°F or below
7%
74-75°F
15%
76-77°F
17%
78-79°F
29%
80-81°F
41%
82-83°F
43%
84-85°F
9%
86-87°F
15%
88-89°F
2%
90-91°F
2%
92°F or higher
2%
82-83°F 43%
80-81°F 41%
78-79°F 29%
76-77°F 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
73°F or below
$0 Vol.
7%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
15%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
17%
78-79°F
$122 Vol.
29%
80-81°F
$115 Vol.
41%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
43%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
9%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
15%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
2%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
2%
92°F or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and model guidance for Miami on September 4, 2026, projects overnight lows clustered in the upper 70s to low 80s amid a persistently warm, moist subtropical airmass with high precipitable water values and widespread thunderstorm activity. Frequent cloud cover and humidity from recent tropical moisture influx limit radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures above typical early-September climatological values near 77°F. This forecast consensus, with limited model spread expected through the short-term window, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward the 78–83°F range, where combined implied probability exceeds 90%. Minor variations in storm timing or steering could still shift the exact low within that band before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$237End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and model guidance for Miami on September 4, 2026, projects overnight lows clustered in the upper 70s to low 80s amid a persistently warm, moist subtropical airmass with high precipitable water values and widespread thunderstorm activity. Frequent cloud cover and humidity from recent tropical moisture influx limit radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures above typical early-September climatological values near 77°F. This forecast consensus, with limited model spread expected through the short-term window, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward the 78–83°F range, where combined implied probability exceeds 90%. Minor variations in storm timing or steering could still shift the exact low within that band before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$237End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and model guidance for Miami on September 4, 2026, projects overnight lows clustered in the upper 70s to low 80s amid a persistently warm, moist subtropical airmass with high precipitable water values and widespread thunderstorm activity. Frequent cloud cover and humidity from recent tropical moisture influx limit radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures above typical early-September climatological values near 77°F. This forecast consensus, with limited model spread expected through the short-term window, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward the 78–83°F range, where combined implied probability exceeds 90%. Minor variations in storm timing or steering could still shift the exact low within that band before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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