Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate a highest temperature near 88°F for Miami on September 4, driven by persistent southeasterly flow, elevated moisture, and widespread afternoon convection that increases cloud cover and reduces surface heating. Thunderstorm timing and intensity remain the key variables that could push readings into the low 90s if convection remains scattered or suppress them into the mid-80s with earlier or heavier coverage. This setup aligns closely with early-September climatology of 89–90°F highs while reflecting current guidance that favors the 88–91°F range. Updated short-range model runs and NWS afternoon briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on September 4?
Highest temperature in Miami on September 4?
90-91°F 43%
88-89°F 31%
92-93°F 20%
82-83°F 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
16%
84-85°F
16%
86-87°F
12%
88-89°F
32%
90-91°F
27%
92-93°F
20%
94-95°F
7%
96-97°F
7%
98°F or higher
3%
90-91°F 43%
88-89°F 31%
92-93°F 20%
82-83°F 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
79°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
7%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
16%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
16%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
12%
88-89°F
$40 Vol.
32%
90-91°F
$10 Vol.
27%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
20%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
7%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
7%
98°F or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate a highest temperature near 88°F for Miami on September 4, driven by persistent southeasterly flow, elevated moisture, and widespread afternoon convection that increases cloud cover and reduces surface heating. Thunderstorm timing and intensity remain the key variables that could push readings into the low 90s if convection remains scattered or suppress them into the mid-80s with earlier or heavier coverage. This setup aligns closely with early-September climatology of 89–90°F highs while reflecting current guidance that favors the 88–91°F range. Updated short-range model runs and NWS afternoon briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate a highest temperature near 88°F for Miami on September 4, driven by persistent southeasterly flow, elevated moisture, and widespread afternoon convection that increases cloud cover and reduces surface heating. Thunderstorm timing and intensity remain the key variables that could push readings into the low 90s if convection remains scattered or suppress them into the mid-80s with earlier or heavier coverage. This setup aligns closely with early-September climatology of 89–90°F highs while reflecting current guidance that favors the 88–91°F range. Updated short-range model runs and NWS afternoon briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate a highest temperature near 88°F for Miami on September 4, driven by persistent southeasterly flow, elevated moisture, and widespread afternoon convection that increases cloud cover and reduces surface heating. Thunderstorm timing and intensity remain the key variables that could push readings into the low 90s if convection remains scattered or suppress them into the mid-80s with earlier or heavier coverage. This setup aligns closely with early-September climatology of 89–90°F highs while reflecting current guidance that favors the 88–91°F range. Updated short-range model runs and NWS afternoon briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions