Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Manila highs on September 4 near 29–30°C amid persistent southwest monsoon flow, widespread cloud cover, and a 90–99% chance of thunderstorms that limit daytime solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling. High humidity near 80–90% and moderate winds further moderate peak temperatures, aligning with climatological norms for early September in the region. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 30–31°C because models show only modest day-to-day variability in these conditions, with slight differences in timing or intensity of convection determining whether the daily maximum reaches the upper or lower end of that narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 4?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 4?
31°C 34%
30°C 30%
29°C 18%
32°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
3%
28°C
6%
29°C
18%
30°C
30%
31°C
34%
32°C
9%
33°C or higher
4%
31°C 34%
30°C 30%
29°C 18%
32°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
$80 Vol.
1%
24°C
$276 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$332 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$120 Vol.
2%
27°C
$202 Vol.
3%
28°C
$5 Vol.
6%
29°C
$0 Vol.
18%
30°C
$0 Vol.
30%
31°C
$115 Vol.
34%
32°C
$33 Vol.
9%
33°C or higher
$20 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Manila highs on September 4 near 29–30°C amid persistent southwest monsoon flow, widespread cloud cover, and a 90–99% chance of thunderstorms that limit daytime solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling. High humidity near 80–90% and moderate winds further moderate peak temperatures, aligning with climatological norms for early September in the region. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 30–31°C because models show only modest day-to-day variability in these conditions, with slight differences in timing or intensity of convection determining whether the daily maximum reaches the upper or lower end of that narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$1,183End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Manila highs on September 4 near 29–30°C amid persistent southwest monsoon flow, widespread cloud cover, and a 90–99% chance of thunderstorms that limit daytime solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling. High humidity near 80–90% and moderate winds further moderate peak temperatures, aligning with climatological norms for early September in the region. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 30–31°C because models show only modest day-to-day variability in these conditions, with slight differences in timing or intensity of convection determining whether the daily maximum reaches the upper or lower end of that narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,183End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Manila highs on September 4 near 29–30°C amid persistent southwest monsoon flow, widespread cloud cover, and a 90–99% chance of thunderstorms that limit daytime solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling. High humidity near 80–90% and moderate winds further moderate peak temperatures, aligning with climatological norms for early September in the region. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 30–31°C because models show only modest day-to-day variability in these conditions, with slight differences in timing or intensity of convection determining whether the daily maximum reaches the upper or lower end of that narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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