Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and associated cloud cover over Luzon represent the main driver keeping Manila's daily minimum temperatures near historical norms of 25–27 °C for early September. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble forecasts show continued moderate-to-heavy showers and southwesterly winds through September 4, which limit daytime heating while sustaining high humidity and preventing strong radiational cooling overnight. This setup creates a narrow diurnal range that favors the tightly clustered 24–27 °C outcomes, yet model spread on shower timing and any brief clear spells sustains roughly equal market-implied odds for both sub-21 °C and 31 °C+ extremes. Updated model runs and PAGASA’s next 24-hour bulletins will likely narrow the distribution before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 4?
21°C or below 69%
31°C or higher 69%
23°C 49%
24°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
21°C or below
69%
22°C
18%
23°C
49%
24°C
49%
25°C
49%
26°C
49%
27°C
26%
28°C
49%
29°C
49%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
69%
21°C or below 69%
31°C or higher 69%
23°C 49%
24°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
22°C
$0 Vol.
18%
23°C
$0 Vol.
49%
24°C
$0 Vol.
49%
25°C
$0 Vol.
49%
26°C
$0 Vol.
49%
27°C
$0 Vol.
26%
28°C
$0 Vol.
49%
29°C
$0 Vol.
49%
30°C
$0 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and associated cloud cover over Luzon represent the main driver keeping Manila's daily minimum temperatures near historical norms of 25–27 °C for early September. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble forecasts show continued moderate-to-heavy showers and southwesterly winds through September 4, which limit daytime heating while sustaining high humidity and preventing strong radiational cooling overnight. This setup creates a narrow diurnal range that favors the tightly clustered 24–27 °C outcomes, yet model spread on shower timing and any brief clear spells sustains roughly equal market-implied odds for both sub-21 °C and 31 °C+ extremes. Updated model runs and PAGASA’s next 24-hour bulletins will likely narrow the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and associated cloud cover over Luzon represent the main driver keeping Manila's daily minimum temperatures near historical norms of 25–27 °C for early September. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble forecasts show continued moderate-to-heavy showers and southwesterly winds through September 4, which limit daytime heating while sustaining high humidity and preventing strong radiational cooling overnight. This setup creates a narrow diurnal range that favors the tightly clustered 24–27 °C outcomes, yet model spread on shower timing and any brief clear spells sustains roughly equal market-implied odds for both sub-21 °C and 31 °C+ extremes. Updated model runs and PAGASA’s next 24-hour bulletins will likely narrow the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and associated cloud cover over Luzon represent the main driver keeping Manila's daily minimum temperatures near historical norms of 25–27 °C for early September. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble forecasts show continued moderate-to-heavy showers and southwesterly winds through September 4, which limit daytime heating while sustaining high humidity and preventing strong radiational cooling overnight. This setup creates a narrow diurnal range that favors the tightly clustered 24–27 °C outcomes, yet model spread on shower timing and any brief clear spells sustains roughly equal market-implied odds for both sub-21 °C and 31 °C+ extremes. Updated model runs and PAGASA’s next 24-hour bulletins will likely narrow the distribution before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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