**Model consensus from global and regional forecasts positions a 31°C high as the most probable outcome for Karachi on September 4, with 32°C close behind, aligning closely with the market's 50% and 29% implied probabilities.** Recent GFS and ensemble runs, alongside Pakistan Meteorological Department guidance, indicate partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions with moderate southwest winds and high humidity moderating peak temperatures near the historical early-September average of 30–32°C. Coastal sea-breeze effects and lingering monsoon moisture suppress stronger heating, while any brief clearing could allow brief spikes toward 33°C. No heatwave signals or major model disagreements appear in the latest data, keeping probabilities concentrated around these values ahead of final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Karachi on September 4?
Highest temperature in Karachi on September 4?
31°C 50%
32°C 29%
30°C 13%
33°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
5%
30°C
13%
31°C
50%
32°C
29%
33°C
7%
34°C
3%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
3%
31°C 50%
32°C 29%
30°C 13%
33°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
26°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
1%
28°C
$27 Vol.
3%
29°C
$11 Vol.
5%
30°C
$414 Vol.
13%
31°C
$314 Vol.
50%
32°C
$295 Vol.
29%
33°C
$90 Vol.
7%
34°C
$0 Vol.
3%
35°C
$0 Vol.
2%
36°C or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Model consensus from global and regional forecasts positions a 31°C high as the most probable outcome for Karachi on September 4, with 32°C close behind, aligning closely with the market's 50% and 29% implied probabilities.**
Recent GFS and ensemble runs, alongside Pakistan Meteorological Department guidance, indicate partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions with moderate southwest winds and high humidity moderating peak temperatures near the historical early-September average of 30–32°C. Coastal sea-breeze effects and lingering monsoon moisture suppress stronger heating, while any brief clearing could allow brief spikes toward 33°C. No heatwave signals or major model disagreements appear in the latest data, keeping probabilities concentrated around these values ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$1,151End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Model consensus from global and regional forecasts positions a 31°C high as the most probable outcome for Karachi on September 4, with 32°C close behind, aligning closely with the market's 50% and 29% implied probabilities.**
Recent GFS and ensemble runs, alongside Pakistan Meteorological Department guidance, indicate partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions with moderate southwest winds and high humidity moderating peak temperatures near the historical early-September average of 30–32°C. Coastal sea-breeze effects and lingering monsoon moisture suppress stronger heating, while any brief clearing could allow brief spikes toward 33°C. No heatwave signals or major model disagreements appear in the latest data, keeping probabilities concentrated around these values ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,151End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkcResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Model consensus from global and regional forecasts positions a 31°C high as the most probable outcome for Karachi on September 4, with 32°C close behind, aligning closely with the market's 50% and 29% implied probabilities.** Recent GFS and ensemble runs, alongside Pakistan Meteorological Department guidance, indicate partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions with moderate southwest winds and high humidity moderating peak temperatures near the historical early-September average of 30–32°C. Coastal sea-breeze effects and lingering monsoon moisture suppress stronger heating, while any brief clearing could allow brief spikes toward 33°C. No heatwave signals or major model disagreements appear in the latest data, keeping probabilities concentrated around these values ahead of final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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