Recent influx of cooler northeasterly air from a northern high-pressure system has lowered daytime highs across the Seoul-Incheon region by 2–4°C since early September, setting up mild overnight conditions for September 11. Official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and ensemble models indicate minimum temperatures near 17–19°C under mostly clear skies, with light winds promoting modest radiative cooling after sunset. Differentiation among 17–18°C versus higher or lower bins hinges on subtle variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise timing of the daily minimum, as northeasterly flow limits extreme drops while preventing significant warming. Historical September climatology for Incheon shows average lows near 18°C, providing context for the closely matched market-implied probabilities around these values. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 11?
12°C or below 45%
22°C or higher 44%
18°C 32%
17°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
12°C or below
45%
13°C
6%
14°C
20%
15°C
26%
16°C
16%
17°C
31%
18°C
32%
19°C
17%
20°C
5%
21°C
5%
22°C or higher
44%
12°C or below 45%
22°C or higher 44%
18°C 32%
17°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
45%
13°C
$0 Vol.
6%
14°C
$0 Vol.
20%
15°C
$0 Vol.
26%
16°C
$0 Vol.
16%
17°C
$40 Vol.
31%
18°C
$663 Vol.
32%
19°C
$0 Vol.
17%
20°C
$0 Vol.
5%
21°C
$0 Vol.
5%
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent influx of cooler northeasterly air from a northern high-pressure system has lowered daytime highs across the Seoul-Incheon region by 2–4°C since early September, setting up mild overnight conditions for September 11. Official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and ensemble models indicate minimum temperatures near 17–19°C under mostly clear skies, with light winds promoting modest radiative cooling after sunset. Differentiation among 17–18°C versus higher or lower bins hinges on subtle variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise timing of the daily minimum, as northeasterly flow limits extreme drops while preventing significant warming. Historical September climatology for Incheon shows average lows near 18°C, providing context for the closely matched market-implied probabilities around these values. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$703End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksiResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent influx of cooler northeasterly air from a northern high-pressure system has lowered daytime highs across the Seoul-Incheon region by 2–4°C since early September, setting up mild overnight conditions for September 11. Official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and ensemble models indicate minimum temperatures near 17–19°C under mostly clear skies, with light winds promoting modest radiative cooling after sunset. Differentiation among 17–18°C versus higher or lower bins hinges on subtle variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise timing of the daily minimum, as northeasterly flow limits extreme drops while preventing significant warming. Historical September climatology for Incheon shows average lows near 18°C, providing context for the closely matched market-implied probabilities around these values. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$703End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksiResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent influx of cooler northeasterly air from a northern high-pressure system has lowered daytime highs across the Seoul-Incheon region by 2–4°C since early September, setting up mild overnight conditions for September 11. Official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and ensemble models indicate minimum temperatures near 17–19°C under mostly clear skies, with light winds promoting modest radiative cooling after sunset. Differentiation among 17–18°C versus higher or lower bins hinges on subtle variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise timing of the daily minimum, as northeasterly flow limits extreme drops while preventing significant warming. Historical September climatology for Incheon shows average lows near 18°C, providing context for the closely matched market-implied probabilities around these values. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions